429 FXUS65 KABQ 060801 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 201 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 - Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall may create minor flooding over parts of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday. Areas on and downstream of burn scars, including the Ruidoso area, will have the higher risk of flooding. - Isolated light showers and dry thunderstorms over parts of west central New Mexico Saturday may result in strong and erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts. - Mostly dry and and seasonably hot conditions next week with a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande Valley and eastern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Latest forecast trends are toward lower storm chances today along the central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley. Drier and more stable air is shown sliding farther east into more of central and western NM as an H5 ridge drifts southeast into southwest NM. The deeper moisture will remain over eastern NM on the backside of a departing upper level low. Storms are still expected to fire up along the east slopes of the central mt chain then move south- southeast into the high plains of eastern NM thru sunset. Outflows will be strong again with cells on the western periphery today as DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg with the drier air advecting east. Storms will gather steam as they push farther east into better low level moisture and instability. Several CAMs show max QPF values near 1.5" with the stronger cells over southeast NM, including HREF and REFS LPMMs (local probability matched mean). The upper level high will crest over the region tonight as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Slightly stronger westerly winds over the region Sunday will help to boost temps above normal with much of eastern NM topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. A thin layer of mid level moisture creeping north into southwest NM ahead of the approaching trough may squeeze out a couple virga showers by late day. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 By Monday, the aforementioned upper level high will strengthen over TX while the upper level trough advances east into western AZ. This squeeze play will force a 55-65kt speed max into western NM Monday afternoon. Improving ascent with the upper jet and enough mid level moisture seeping north ahead of the upper trough will allow isolated to scattered virga showers and dry storms to develop over central NM. Model DCAPE values as high as 1800 J/kg over western NM with large inverted-V profiles would support strong downburst winds. Even global models show outflow boundaries emanating from this area of showers by late Monday afternoon. The focus for high-based showers and perhaps dry storms shifts into eastern NM by Tuesday as the upper level trough attempts to suppress the upper ridge farther southeast into TX. Breezy southwest winds over western and central NM may pose a risk to new fire starts from any dry lightning strikes on Monday. Extended guidance is coming into better agreement with dry zonal flow over the entire region by Wednesday as the upper trough lifts north and the upper high reorganizes over northern MX. Long range models largely disagree on how the subtropical ridge to our south will evolve over the southwest CONUS next weekend. This ridge is our monsoon high beginning to make an appearance. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A few lingering showers east of the central mt chain late this evening will taper off thru the predawn hours. Mid and high level cloud cover will gradually clear over central and western NM. Another crop of SHRA/TS will form over the central mt chain after 11am Saturday then move south/southeast around 15KT into nearby highlands over eastern NM thru late day. Gusty outflow winds up to 45KT will be the main threat, along with brief heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Single digit humidity with slightly stronger west winds will spread farther east across western and central NM today. Meanwhile, areas along and east of the central mt chain will see another round of showers and storms with strong outflow winds and moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Storm motion will be south to southeast at 15 to 20 mph. An upper level trough will approach from the west Sunday thru Tuesday with increasing southwest winds and hot temperatures. Single digit humidity and poor recoveries will focus over much of western NM during this period with elevated to locally critical fire weather likely. Areas between the Cont Divide and the central mt chain may see high-based showers and dry storms Monday and Tuesday with strong downburst wind gusts. The greatest chance for a Fire Weather Watch is Tuesday and Wednesday over western NM when critical conditions coincide with RFTI values of 3 to 6 and ERC values above the 90th percentile. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 57 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 46 85 45 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 87 55 85 54 / 10 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 50 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 89 55 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 86 52 84 51 / 0 0 10 0 Magdalena....................... 86 61 86 60 / 10 5 0 0 Datil........................... 85 56 82 54 / 0 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 90 48 89 49 / 5 0 5 0 Glenwood........................ 93 51 93 52 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 44 79 44 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 58 84 60 / 40 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 84 50 86 54 / 40 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 51 82 54 / 40 20 0 0 Red River....................... 73 43 74 46 / 50 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 42 78 47 / 50 10 0 0 Taos............................ 85 48 85 52 / 30 10 0 0 Mora............................ 81 50 84 53 / 50 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 91 56 92 57 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 57 85 60 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 54 88 57 / 20 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 65 92 67 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 62 93 63 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 62 96 63 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 63 94 64 / 10 5 0 0 Belen........................... 95 60 95 61 / 5 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 94 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 59 95 60 / 10 5 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 95 61 95 61 / 10 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 63 90 65 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 94 63 94 64 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 66 97 66 / 10 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 58 87 61 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 88 57 88 60 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 88 55 88 58 / 20 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 51 90 54 / 20 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 54 86 57 / 30 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 87 55 88 56 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 85 56 87 57 / 20 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 87 62 91 65 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 80 57 83 60 / 20 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 80 49 89 53 / 30 20 0 0 Raton........................... 86 50 91 52 / 30 10 0 0 Springer........................ 85 50 92 53 / 30 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 82 50 87 53 / 50 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 83 55 95 62 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 82 52 92 57 / 40 20 0 0 Conchas......................... 89 57 100 61 / 20 20 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 86 55 97 61 / 20 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 88 59 100 64 / 20 20 0 0 Clovis.......................... 84 59 96 64 / 20 10 0 0 Portales........................ 84 59 97 64 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 87 58 100 62 / 20 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 89 61 101 64 / 5 20 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 58 94 62 / 20 20 10 0 Elk............................. 85 57 90 60 / 30 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42