750 FXUS63 KABR 050602 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 102 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - The risk for severe thunderstorms will continue to diminish through the early morning hours, although showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and south of US Highway 212 through the pre-dawn hours. The heavy rainfall that occurred through late Thursday evening along and south of US Highway 14 will lead to continued flooding issues through the morning hours. - A brief weekend warmup will push high temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early June. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The aviation discussion has been updated for the 06Z TAFS. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Some spotty showers and storms have been moving through central SD this morning and will continue to move east into the early afternoon. While these have mainly been just showers and some occasional lightning, a stronger cell or two has had some dime sized hail from them at times. A cold front is currently sitting over south central and northeastern SD, and will be slowly moving south through the afternoon and tonight. Some warm, moist air continues to move into the state as the afternoon heat helps to destabilize the atmosphere. Models are showing MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg over central and northeastern SD, with the highest instability over south central SD. The scattered morning showers and storms could help to stabilize the atmosphere over central SD into the afternoon, which could decrease the ability for storms to develop during the late afternoon. The storms that do develop will likely turn into discrete supercells from shear values of 35-45kts late this afternoon into the evening over central SD. These storms will be moving east through the evening over northeastern SD. Another cluster of storms is forecast to develop again over south central SD and move east over east central through the overnight hours. Large hail will be the primary threat with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km helping to get hail with the diameter of 1-2 inches to the surface. Additionally, with DCAPE around and above 800 J/kg, strong to damaging wind gusts from the storms will be possible. Models are showing a lack of low level shear over central and northeastern SD that would help tornadoes to develop. However, there is a little bit over south central SD, making it so that a tornado or two can not be ruled out. Storm motions for the storms are forecast to be around if not faster than 15kts, which will reduce the chances for slow moving storms. However, the flooding potential is still there with higher PWAT values, the chance for storms to move over the same areas, and if over areas that have recieved a lot of rain over the past couple of days. There could be some lingering showers over south central and northeastern SD Friday morning after the storms move out overnight. There should be a break from severe storm Friday, though some isolated to scattered showers and storms could develop Friday afternoon over northeastern SD. The lack of shear over northeastern SD Friday will help to keep the storms from becoming long lived and supercellular in nature. The potential for storms to develop will decrease once the sun sets. Friday night through Sunday, and upper-level ridge will start building and moving over SD. This ridge will help to keep precipitation out for a bit, giving us break from storms and rain for a day or two. Under this ridge, warmer temperatures will be moving in, which will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Sunday afternoon into Monday, a surface trough will be moving over SD. This surface trough will bring the next chance for storms and showers to occur Sunday evening into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The threat for a -SHRA/-TSRA will persist for the first few hours of this TAF cycle at KPIR/KATY and possibly as far north as KABR, but low confidence in any precip reaching that far north. Otherwise, the trends will be for quieter weather conditions going into the daytime hours today with mostly VFR conditions expected. There may be pockets of lower MVFR CIGs or patchy fog across the region early this morning closer to daybreak, but low confidence on overall areal coverage. Anticipate daytime convective -SHRA/-TSRA to pop up during the afternoon hours across northeast SD. This could potentially affect operations at KABR/KATY terminals, although low confidence remains on areal coverage and left the forecast for those TAF sites dry for now. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vipond DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...Vipond