757 FXAK68 PAFC 050026 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 426 PM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Surface observations across Southcentral are reporting temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to the upper 70s / lower 80s. A weak cold front crosses the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Valley regions this evening. With temperatures in the upper 70s and RH values in the low 20% this evening, this frontal passage could cause sporadic wind gusts as high as 25 mph through midnight. Tomorrow, a trough begins to push the ridge of high pressure eastward. This will bring increased cloud cover and rain showers for higher elevations of the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening. More widespread showers across Southcentral are expected Saturday as the trough digs deeper and continues to move eastward. -DJ && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)... Key Messages: * Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the Inland Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna zones through 9 PM AKDT this evening. * A cooling trend, along with elevated minimum relative humidities begins Friday and lasts into the weekend across Southwest Alaska. Discussion: Temperatures this afternoon across much of Southwest Alaska have over-performed and have warmed well into the mid 70s. Clear skies prevail across the region as dry and warm air continues to advect across the region from the Interior. It is not just happening at the surface, however, as atmospheric sounding data shows a fairly deep layer of northwesterly flow with dry air aloft that has been able to make it down to the surface via turbulent mixing. Friday shows a somewhat different story. As a weak, dry "cold" front moves southward across Southwest Alaska, it will decrease thickness values and effectively cool the airmass. A few clouds will be around tomorrow as well, which will help to shave a few degrees off of daytime high temperatures. With winds also a touch weaker for Friday, this will somewhat alleviate fire weather concerns across Southwest Alaska. Farther out west, a weak North Pacific low will send its front northward into Adak/Atka through Friday and will result in a period of light rain and breezy conditions. Rain should taper off by Friday evening across the area as the front pivots back to the southeast. After the front moves away from the Central Aleutian Chain, higher pressure builds back in with more quiet weather anticipated across the Bering and Aleutians through the weekend. The only challenge will be where low stratus and overcast conditions develop. Lastly, Shower chances return for portions of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley Saturday into Sunday as a series of weak upper level shortwaves move overhead. -AM/DN && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)... The long term forecast for early next week remains generally on track, with an unsettled pattern in store for much of Alaska. Synoptically, there will be Arctic troughing over the interior, ridging over the Bering, and a North Pacific lows tracking through the Southern Gulf. The Arctic low meanders over the northern tier of the state, with shortwave pushes occasionally scraping the southern interior. Expect intermittent light showery conditions across the mainland and southern coast, with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. These pushes of cool air will bring temperatures closer to seasonal averages across much of Southcentral. With persistent ridging over the Bering, temperatures will likely remain at or above average for the AKPen and Aleutians, with mostly dry conditions. Another North Pacific low will likely build just South of the Western Aleutians by around Tuesday, however, there remains a significant amount of model spread regarding the progression of this system. The GFS solution is an outlier with a much more progressive track, bringing it into the Gulf by about midweek, whereas the ECMWF and Canadian model guidance have it just barely past the Central Aleutians by around the same time. -CW && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... For Southwest Alaska: ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR INLAND BRISTOL BAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ILIAMNA... Breezy westerly winds continue to filter in across Southwest Alaska this afternoon, and temperatures have warmed quickly today well into the mid 70s. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 9PM AKDT this evening for inland Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna. A dry cold front sweeping southward from the Interior will help cool the airmass in place for tomorrow, and an increase in clouds will help to keep daytime high temperatures a few degrees cooler than they were today. With weaker winds, cooler temperatures, and relative humidity recovering for Friday, there is high confidence that fire weather concerns will decrease Friday and through the weekend. Upper level energy moves overhead Saturday, increasing shower chances for the weekend for portions of Southwest Alaska. For Southcentral: Hot and dry conditions will persist today, before beginning to moderate for tomorrow. There remains the potential for northerly winds up to 10-15 mph through the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin late this afternoon through tonight. The strongest winds may also occur during the overnight hours tonight. Therefore, it still looks like the strongest winds and hottest/driest conditions will not line up temporally or geographically as the strongest winds are also expected to be through the higher elevations where conditions will be slightly cooler and a little more moist. In the end, there are NOT any Red Flag Warnings out for the Susitna Valley or Copper River Basin, but conditions will not be too far removed. By Saturday, fire weather concerns will have abated across Southcentral as an upper level trough digs into the area and brings significantly higher RH values and lower temperatures. && $$