898 FXAK68 PAFC 060043 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... Southcentral Alaska is in between a ridge to the south and a low to the north. This is allowing for mostly clear conditions, light winds, and warm temperatures. The Copper River Basin, however, is seeing scattered showers due to daytime heating and ample moisture in place. There is a small chance of isolated lightning with some of these rain showers. The Susitna Valley may also see some isolated showers during the day. On Saturday, a low from the west moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This, along with troughing will bring in more moisture into Southcentral. The systems will also build a coastal ridge over the Western Chugach Range, allowing for gusty winds in Anchorage, Palmer, and the Copper River Basin. There will also be gap winds through the Barren Islands and through Shelikof Strait. Increasing cloud cover and cooler air from the north will decrease high temperatures by around 10 degrees across the board (highs in the 60s). The moisture brought in will allow for chances for showers in higher elevations and the Susitna Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Talkeetna Mountains. Some of these storms could drift into the Copper River Basin north of Glennallen. For the rest of the weekend and into early next week, troughing will remain over Southcentral, allowing for continued scattered showers. Wind speeds will gradually decrease and become lighter by Monday. Chances for thunderstorms will be on the lower side due to lower instability from Sunday onward. High temperatures will remain cooler, but will gradually warm through Monday. An upper trough looks to swing into Southcentral towards the middle of next week which could bring rain and cooler temperatures. -JAR && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday evening)... As of this afternoon, a weak North Pacific low south of the Aleutian Chain has its attendant front draped across the Central Aleutians, which has brought rain showers and breezy conditions to these areas. This surface low will continue to skirt eastward and south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of the short term. For the Bristol Bay region, ceilings and visibility have improved this afternoon, though satellite imagery reveals a tongue of low stratus/fog still banked along the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians. Cooler air has worked its way across the Bering in the wake of a passing upper level trough, and a surface ridge anchored across the western Bering continues to work in tandem with lower pressure across Southwest Alaska and the Interior. The interaction of these two synoptic features has yielded a prevailing northwesterly wind across the Bering and advection fog with associated low stratus. MOS guidance and the HRRR once again are bullish on bringing fog back in Saturday morning anywhere from Dutch Harbor to Dillingham and King Salmon, and the main forecast challenge for the near term is timing out a) if/when areas still seeing fog/low stratus scatter out, b) when exactly the fog returns Saturday morning, and c) when it begins to erode and mix out. A series of shortwave troughs rotating around the southern periphery of a positively tilted longwave arctic trough will drive over Southwest Alaska for Saturday and Sunday, which will bring a return of increased cloud cover and an uptick in shower chances. An isolated thunderstorm is possible on Sunday as a stronger shortwave moves over the region, mainly east and southeast of the Kuskokwim Mountains from the Bristol Bay region northeastward to the Lime Village area. By Monday afternoon, the aforementioned arctic trough reorients itself and begins to dig southeastward over Southwest Alaska from the Bering Strait. There is a bit of a spread in the global models on when the trough reaches Southwest Alaska and how quickly it drops southward towards the Alaska Peninsula, but the general idea is that widespread showers return for the first part of the week. -AM && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... Tuesday is shaping up to be an unsettled day for much of Alaska, as an Arctic shortwave pushes into the southern interior. As its associated cold front arrives, it should help cool temperatures slightly below average for many locations. High pressure over the Bering should prevent the cold front from working too far West, keeping the Aleutians and most of the AKPen warm and dry. Light scattered showers (and potentially isolated thunderstorms) will work across the state from Northwest to Southeast as this system sweeps through. For Wednesday and Thursday, intermittent showers will likely linger over Southcentral, with temperatures remaining near seasonal norms. Conditions should improve for the southwest interior as the Bering ridge spreads further East, maintaining mostly dry and warmer weather. Looking toward the end of the week, some model guidance hints at a moderately strong North Pacific low migrating into the Gulf of Alaska. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement for this system pushing into the southern coast by Friday -- even potentially tapping into Subtropical moisture. If this occurs Southcentral would be looking at a continuation of this active pattern, particularly for coastal areas. -CW && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. Light northerly winds may turn west to southwesterly by early evening before switching to more south-southeasterly tonight as the Turnagain Arm winds increase. Winds are expected to bend into the terminal at times with gusts up to 25 kts...beginning tonight and continuing through early Sun morning. && $$