231 FXUS61 KAKQ 050550 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms, albeit limited is not until later Sunday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions favored early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 115 AM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...High temperatures reach the upper 80s to mid 90s from Friday through the weekend. The next chance for showers/thunderstorms, albeit limited is not until later Sunday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions favored early next week. Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure over the area tonight. Temps as of 1 AM ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area under mostly clear skies. Morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s are still expected. Can't rule out some locations even dropping into the lower 50s. The surface high gradually shifts offshore through Saturday while the upper ridge continues to build eastward. This will allow for our warming trend (and dry wx) to continue, and it will become rather hot by Friday and Saturday. Widespread readings in the lower 90s are likely by Friday and lower-mid 90s by Saturday, with Saturday currently looking like the hottest day of the forecast period. Even though temperatures will be quite hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid-upper 50s through Saturday, keeping heat indices around or even just below actual air temperatures. The next chance for rain is not until later Sunday into Sunday evening as the ridge breaks down somewhat and a shortwave trough tracks SE from Quebec to New England. This will allow a cold front to approach and likely cross the area sometime from early Monday morning-Monday afternoon. A pre-frontal trough Sunday will likely be the main initiator of any convection, with the push of cooler and drier air not arriving until Monday with the actual front. While it appeared as if there was a possibility for the front to linger nearby for a few days next week, all of the models and ensembles continue to move it through the area by Monday, with cooler/drier air (and very little to no precip) from Monday night-Thursday. While models remain unenthusiastic on any beneficial rainfall with this system, the atmosphere will likely be moderately unstable on Sunday with temperatures reaching the upper 80s-mid 90s w/60s dewpoints. With stronger flow aloft from the approaching trough, at least a few strong- severe storms could occur. Will monitor this potential over the coming days. Regarding the rainfall potential, the multi-model ensemble (NBM) has continued to trend down, with generally less than a 20% chc of 0.25". Obviously, locally higher rainfall amounts would possible in any thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures are favored Monday and especially Tuesday of next week with the front south of the area, followed by another potential warmer spell later in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions and light winds prevail through the 6z taf period. Some cirrus (primarily FEW with perhaps SCT at times) will stream overhead today. Otherwise, mostly clear skies continue. Will note that the HRRR has thicker cloud cover this afternoon this morning into early this afternoon area-wide, however, this appears to be the outlier. Otherwise, light and variable winds early this morning become SW at RIC/SBY/PHF and S at ORF/ECG between 5-10 kt later this morning into this afternoon. Cloud cover increases tonight into early Sat morning due to cirrus. Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chc) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected with generally an E to NE wind. && .MARINE... As of 150 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions prevail today into the weekend. - A cold front is forecast to cross the coast Sunday night followed by another period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week. Broad high pressure is in place over the Southeast early this morning. Winds locally are SW around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay with seas nearshore ranging from 2- 4 ft (highest S) and 3-5 ft in the 20-60nm zones. High pressure drifts offshore tonight into Saturday with winds generally SW 10-15 kt. Guidance suggests that Friday and especially Saturday nights will see an uptick in wind speeds to around 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Local wind probabilities are not enthused regarding a sustained period of SCA-level winds in the Ches Bay but a period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible for the northern coastal waters Saturday evening into the overnight. Wave guidance also implies a period of 5 ft seas in the same area Saturday night but models tend to overestimate sea heights in marginal SW flow. Weaker winds are expected on Sunday ahead of the next front which is forecast to drop southward across the waters by early Monday. A period of SCA conditions is possible behind this front as NE winds strengthen and seas build. Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday into mid week as high pressure builds back into the region. A Moderate Rip Current Risk is forecast for all beaches today. A Moderate Rip Risk likely continues for the northern beaches Saturday and Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI/RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...RHR