238 FXUS61 KAKQ 060628 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 228 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased fire danger for portions of NE NC Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) NC Forecast Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC (most local NE NC counties with the exception of Northampton) from 10 PM to 8 PM Saturday and Sunday due to very high fire danger. 2) Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. 3) A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a low chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 140 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...NC Forecast Service has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE NC (most local NE NC counties with the exception of Northampton) from 10 AM to 8 PM Saturday and Sunday due to very high fire danger. Very high fire danger is forecast for the Northern Coast region of the NC Forest Service (NCFS) this weekend. This includes most local NE NC counties with the exception of Northampton. Therefore, NCFS has requested an Increased Fire Danger Statement Saturday and Sunday. Very high fire danger is resulting from ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels. Additionally, there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors will combine with hot temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and abnormally low RH values (25-35%), especially Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot temperatures continue through Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. High pressure was centered along the Southeast coast this morning. Cirrus have helped keep temps a bit warmer. However, still expect clearing before sunrise (particularly along and west of I-95) which should allow for morning lows in the low-mid 60s west and upper 60s to around 70F east. The surface high gradually shifts offshore through this weekend while the upper ridge continues to move eastward. This will allow for hot (and dry) weather through this weekend. Widespread highs in the mid 90s are expected today and lower to mid 90s Sunday (warmest south). Even though temperatures will be hot, dew points will struggle to recover. In fact, afternoon dewpoints will likely be no higher than the mid to upper 50s today, keeping heat indices around (or even just below) the actual air temperatures. Dew points appear to rise Sunday into the mid to upper 60s in advance of the cold front with max heat indices similar to Saturday (mid 90s for most inland areas and upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast). KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front moves into the area Sunday bringing a low chance for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, followed by briefly cooler temperatures early next week. Low pressure moves into New England Sunday, pushing a cold front into the local area. Ahead of the front, dew points in the mid to upper 60s should allow for enough moisture for at least a few isolated showers and tstms. 05/12z CAMs that go through at least 60hrs trigger some showers/tstms in vicinity of the Blue Ridge Sunday aftn with this activity tracking ESE across southern/SE VA into interior NE NC later Sunday afternoon and evening. Additionally, coarser resolution models with convective parameterization accumulate some QPF in this same corridor. Therefore, adjusted PoPs to highlight this region, but still not higher than 20-40% as overall PW diminishes as the cold front approaches the local area. Additionally, SPC has placed most of the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday due to the potential for damaging wind gusts. However, confidence is low given uncertainty in storm coverage and forcing. In any case, rainfall (if any) will likely be low with most locations not receiving more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Rain chances diminish Sunday night as drier air moves in behind the cold front. Briefly cooler temperatures return early next week with highs in the 70s NE to mid/upper 80s SW Monday and mid/upper 70s E to the mid 80s W Tue. However, this cooler weather will be brief with temperatures warming by midweek as high pressure settles offshore. While PoPs remain low at this time, there are some signs of a bit of an unsettled pattern developing by mid-late week with daily chances for diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers/tstms. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast today. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 06z taf period. SCT cirrus early this morning gradually move offshore. However, additional (mainly SCT-BKN) cirrus likely moves into the area later today. FEW-SCT cirrus continue tonight. Winds were light and variable this morning. Winds become SW winds around 10 kt later today with a few afternoon gusts up to ~20 kt possible. Outlook...High pressure remains into control through at least midday Sunday with VFR conditions continuing. The next chance of showers/storms (20-40% chance) arrives ahead of a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. High pressure builds across New England in the wake of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with a chance (30-40%) of diurnal showers/storms. && .MARINE... As of 225 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Generally benign marine conditions prevail through the weekend. - A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late Sunday night followed by another period of NE/onshore flow and potential Small Craft Advisory conditions early next week. Surface high pressure is now centered off the SE CONUS with low pressure well to the N near the Great Lakes. A weak surface trough is noted east of the higher Appalachian terrain. Winds have become SW 10-15 kt between the surface trough and high offshore. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas 2-3 ft offshore. Latest guidance continues to show a period of enhanced SW winds this evening into the overnight but not expecting widespread SCA conditions in either the Ches Bay or coastal waters. A few gusts around 25 kt are possible overnight offshore but this potential is expected to be short-lived. Most of the wave guidance has backed off on the potential for 5+ ft seas for the near shore zones as well so will not be raising any Small Craft Adv headlines with this forecast package. A lull in winds is expected Sunday ahead of the next cold front. However, a few isolated/scattered strong storms are possible late Sunday afternoon/evening with gusty winds. The front is forecast to cross the waters late Sunday night into Monday morning with winds becoming NE 10-20 kt behind the boundary. Latest models continue to decrease the magnitude of the NE wind surge with most guidance now in the 15-20 kt range with gusts to 25 kt offshore and potentially into the lower James/Chesapeake Bay. Seas are forecast to build to 4-5 ft in the post-frontal NE flow. Could see 6+ ft seas south of VA Beach into the OBX if the winds are a bit stronger than currently forecast. Waves in the bay will mostly be 2- 3 ft with 3-4 ft waves possible near the mouth of the bay. High pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday but 5 ft seas may linger across the southern coastal waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 10 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB/RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...RHR