956 FXUS64 KAMA 042322 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 - Isolated storms in the southeast this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will be the main threat, but gusty winds are a concern as well. - Isolated to scattered storms across the central and southeast Panhandles again on Friday and Saturday, with heavy rain being the main concern, but will not rule out severe weather. - Very warm and dry conditions to return for Sunday through Wednesday, with the potential for triple digit heat to return in some areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Surface moisture continues to be better in the southeast and given that this area was not influenced by storms last night is already showing as a few storms have popped up in Donley County and are progged to track east over the next few hours. We'll keep an eye on other areas further west, but temperatures are a bit cooler and looks to be capped off. ML CAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range will be supportive of strong to possibly severe storms with DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and PWAT's over 1.30", we can certainly support the potential for wet microbursts. Intense rain rates of 3- 5" per hour will be possible with these storms, which will lead to localized flooding issues. Again, further west will need to be monitored as we still have some daytime heating and the dewpoints in the 60s could support storms. KAMA 18z sounding is very well capped right now at the mixed layer, but surface based CIN is very weak. Tonight into Friday. Some new developments are suggesting that tomorrow could be another active thunderstorm day, maybe even some strong to severe storms. Overall, we do anticipated higher dewpoints again, and a good moisture axis from southwest to northeast across the Panhandles. With higher dewpoints in the east, we anticipate that storms will trigger along that moisture axis boundary, most likely in the northeast but then an increase in thunderstorm chances will be across the southeast later in the afternoon to early evening, that would be in connection with a shortwave that is coming of from the system currently over the Baja. So given the potential for convection to fire up right on a line, with limited steering flow and another wave to move in that evening flooding due to heavy rain will still be a concern. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Upper low that's currently over the Baja area is expected to track north towards the southern Panhandles. Based on its projected position we do anticipated that the central to southeast Panhandles will be the area of focus for storms. Given the earlier arrival of the system we could have storms start off in the mid to late morning hours and track northeast through the afternoon and evening. The slower progression of this system will support more redevelopment in the afternoon and evening. That could lead to multiple rounds of storms, and again that would be supportive of a flood threat as PWAT's are progged to be in the 1.20-1.40" range. With the system exiting Saturday night and the Panhandles on the back side of it Sunday we should just be very warm and dry for the most part. The exception is all the recent moisture we've received is supportive of higher dewpoints to start the day, and while there is no significant forcing on Sunday, will not rule out a storm popping off just due to breaking the convective temperature, and at that point it could be just about anywhere in the Panhandles. By Monday high pressure will start to establish itself over the central high plains and an omega block pattern will start to emerge. Widespread highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s Monday through Wednesday. NBM pops are on the low side as this is typical of a high pressure situation, but there is certainly room for pops to be added as models diverge as to how long the high will hold, and if it will start to break down mid week, that would bring in a round of precipitation. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south at 10-20 kts. PROB30 groups for scattered storms Friday afternoon may need to be added in future issuances if confidence increases, especially at KAMA. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...38