321 FXUS63 KARX 050612 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 112 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional storms expected this afternoon; however, the risk for any severe weather remains a large question mark in the forecast. - A dry start to the weekend with another round of rain Sunday afternoon into Monday. - Much warmer for the middle to end of next week with highs in the 90s and heat indices expected to crack 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Today: Severe Storms Possible for Some As noted over the last few days, the evolution of this afternoon's severe weather threat remains murky owing to the influences of yesterday's convection. Having been shunted to the south by yesterday's storms and surface flow tuning more southwesterly this afternoon, there is little impetus for Gulf moisture to surge back north of I-80. Residual cloud cover from convection to the west of the region could hinder daytime insolation during the daytime, a solution that the HRRR has been latched onto for its runs this evening. We will still have some time for instability to build across the region just maybe not quite to the degree we were forecasting a couple days ago. 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is still well within the realm of possibilities by late afternoon and as mid level flow increases ahead of the shortwave trough, this could help to initiate storms on/ahead of a weak cold front to our west or any diffuse differential heating boundaries across the area. The 00Z suite of hi-resoultion CAMS does not seem overly aggressive with coverage of storms in our area with coverage being rather isolated to scattered in nature which favors an initial supercell to eventual upscale growth to multicell event. The main hazards look to be hail as height falls cool the upper levels just slightly and allow for slightly steeper mid level lapse rates. Some damaging wind threat will also be possible as some mid level dry air will allow for some elevated DCAPE. The tornado threat looks to be low overall as the low level jet will be displaced to our south with overall weak SRH values across the Upper Mississippi Valley. Overall, as this event looks to be more scattered in nature, it's very possible that many will not see severe storms tomorrow. Saturday - Monday: Warm With More Precipitation Chances The aforementioned upper trough is expected to push off to the east through the morning hours Saturday with a shortwave ridge building in on the backside. As such, the area should stay mostly dry during the day on Saturday. However, the dry conditions won't last for too long with chances for rain returning again Sunday afternoon into Monday. A high amplitude but overall weak trough begins to move through the southwest flow aloft towards the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. There will be a lot of deep gulf moisture tied to this that will surge north into Monday (and yes this does mean higher dew points...). Forecast pWats by early Monday will be in the 1.5-2 inch range or the 95-99th percentile in both the EC and NAEFS climatology. This will be some anomalously high moisture that will lead to some efficient rainfall Monday, prompting WPC to include our area in their Marginal Risk for the Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The saving grace is that the lack of a more significant upper wave will mean that shear will be lackluster and the overall threat for severe weather this this activity generally looks to be low. But with this humidity, will also come some more heat. Temperatures through the weekend and into Monday will still be tolerable in the mid to upper 80s but dew points will be on the uptick into the upper 60s the later we get into the weekend so enjoy them while they're still low. Tuesday - End of Next Week: Trending Hotter and More Humid Meteorological summer is making its debut across the Driftless Region next week as temperatures finally crack that 90 degree threshold areawide. A substantial upper level ridge is expected to build across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS, increasing geopotential heights and allowing for temperatures to start climbing. NBM highs by late next week are jumping into the mid to upper 90s which may be a bit too high and likely a sign of the warm- dry bias but it may not be horribly unreasonable all things considered. With dew points expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with continued southerly flow, heat indices are going to definitely be flirting with and likely surpassing that triple digit threshold - which means we may have to think about heat headlines in the not so distant future. Aside from the heat, low rain chances will continue each day given the ample moisture and instability expected to be present across the area. However, given that forcing will be rather nebulous and coming from small scale interactions, predictability this far out is very low so will continue with the broad-brushed blended solution for PoPs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 MVFR to IFR ceilings are building in the wake of our departing showers, with these ceilings lingering past sunrise before clearing. Fog could also develop in lieu of the stratus with similar aviation impacts. The 14-20Z period looks to have little for aviation impacts before showers and storms start to move in from northwest to southeast, though the coverage and impacts from these storms are uncertain. Winds will be mainly from the south to southwest at 5-10 kts. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skow/Barendse AVIATION...Skow