365 

FXUS63 KARX 060556

AFDARX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Fog through early this morning, mainly east of the 

  Mississippi River where the heaviest rain fell yesterday. 

  Visibilities may touch a quarter of a mile at times.



- Dry conditions today and tonight with the risk for storms

  returning Sunday afternoon into Monday, which could produce

  locally heavy rain.



- Trending hot for the middle to end of next week with highs 

  likely in the 90s and heat indices approaching the 100 degree 

  mark.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026



Today: Fog Early, Dry



Surface/upper level ridging builds into the area through today.

With recent rainfall, light winds, and clear skies overnight, 

fog is forming across areas along and east of the Mississippi 

River, which may spread a little west closer to sunrise. The 

higher probabilities of a quarter mile or less visibilities will

across north central Wisconsin. The rest of the day is dry with

above normal temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 80s 

for highs.



Sunday into Monday: Rain Returns, Locally Heavy



As ridging builds over the Great Lakes region, southerly flow 

returns over the central United States. This will advect deeper 

Gulf moisture into region through the day on Sunday. 

Precipitable water values increase to near 2 inches by 00z 

Monday. Upper level trough embedded in the southwesterly flow 

aloft will track into the Upper Great Lakes/Northern Plains 

States Sunday into Monday. With decent moisture convergence/ 

forcing associated with the upper level trough, expect showers 

and storms to increase in coverage Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Given the deeper moisture and prolonged nature of the rainfall,

rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are not out of the question 

(currently 40% for 1 inch south of I-90 and about 10% for 2 

inches). 



Rest of the Week: Trending Hotter 



As we head late into the week, an upper-level ridge will become 

situated over the local area resulting in southerly low-level flow 

across the local area. As this occurs, moisture advection will 

result in dewpoints increase fairly dramatically across the local 

area with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) having high 

probabilities (70-90%) for dewpoints in the 70s. This coupled 

with highs approaching the 90s would suggest that we could see 

heat indices approaching the 100F mark. Some conflicting 

guidance between the bias-correction in the NBM and the raw 

models leads to some uncertainty in exactly how warm we will 

get. But given the EC Extreme Forecast Index has a fairly strong

probability footprint (70-90%) for temperatures to exceed model

climatology, thinking temperatures will be fairly above normal,

just a matter of how much above normal and if any finer details

such as precipitation potential would keep us cooler.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... 

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026



Shallow LIFR fog is starting to develop across western and

central Wisconsin, which will continue to spread southward as

our current showers and storms depart over the next 3-5 hours.

The fog burns off quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions for

the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light (<5 kts) and 

variable through the period as they gradually swing to the east 

and southeast early Sunday morning.



&&



.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Skow/DTJ/Naylor

AVIATION...Skow