599 FXUS61 KBGM 042330 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 730 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered rain chances by about 15 percent on Saturday as uncertainty remains on timing of frontal passage and where the rain and storms may develop. Also reduced rain chances on Sunday afternoon given limited moisture and best lift will be east of the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warm and dry conditions continue under high pressure through the rest of the work week. 2) A cool front is expected to move through the area Saturday with associated rain showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for severe weather associated with the frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above normal through the weekend. 3) Another Omega block redevelops across the US but the ridge over the central US is not expected to climb as high into Canada as last week. This will allow for a warming trend thru the week as warm air moves over the ridge and into the Northeast US. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong ridge will remain over the area thru Friday. Continued NW flow advecting in cooler Canadian air will help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s today, even with mostly sunny skies. We will see plenty of boundary layer mixing, with dewpoints falling into the low 40s. Radiational cooling tonight should allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s for most, with the normally cooler valley locations hitting the upper 40s. Very dry air should keep fog at bay, but some patchy instances cannot be ruled out across our normally foggier valleys. The ridge axis will slide just to our east on Friday, allowing for SW flow to return and warmer temperatures. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s are expected across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2... The ridge that dominated the weather pattern for the past week will finally break down, allowing a shortwave and associated cool front to move into the area on Saturday. We should see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms develop by the afternoon hours, but uncertainty remains as to how quickly the cool front moves into the area with some guidance showing a morning passage while others continue to show it moving through during the afternoon hours. The timing of the front will determine the potential for severe weather. An afternoon passage should allow for enough instability (700-1100 j/kg) to develop ahead of the front with an area of 0-6km bulk shear between 30-40kts forecast to move in along the front. Mid level lapse rates around 6C and the modest CAPE and shear should allow for a few clusters of storms to become organized and produce damaging winds. SPC has placed our area in a Marginal risk for Saturday, and the current forecasted parameters match this risk. Severe weather could be hampered by an earlier frontal passage or cloudy skies during the morning do not scatter out and last into the early afternoon, limiting CAPE values across the area. PWATs ahead of the front are currently modeled to be in the 1.5-1.75in range, signaling the potential for heavy downpours during thunderstorms. Severe storm chances should end in the evening, but isolated rain showers will be possible Saturday night thru Sunday afternoon as an upper level low slides into New England on Sunday. The trough axis will push through during the afternoon, and with cold air aloft, a few scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out along and east of I-81, especially with northerly flow providing upslope into the Catskills. Rain chances end Sunday evening. Temperatures are expected to be warm on Saturday, with low to mid 80s across areas north of the Southern Tier, and mid 80s to low 90s across the Southern Tier and NEPA. We should be 5-10 degrees cooler on Sunday with northerly flow and a Canadian airmass overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another Omega Block is expected to develop at the beginning of next week, but it does not look to be as strong as the block from this past week. The ridge over the central US is not expected to build as far north into Canada, which should allow warm air from the Central and SW US to climb over the ridge axis and spill into the region. Temps in the upper 70s to low 80s at the beginning of the week will warm to the mid 80s to low 90s by the middle to end of the week. The beginning of the week is expected to be dry, but, depending on the position of the ridge, we could see some rain showers and thunderstorms move back into the area during the late week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions are expected to be VFR throughout this TAF period. Winds become light and variable this evening. Westerly winds return tomorrow afternoon with gusts around 10 knots. Outlook: Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions possible from rain showers and storms. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...BTL/ES