432 FXUS61 KBGM 051908 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 308 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly lowered temperatures for today and tomorrow. Rain chances were adjusted for Saturday based on latest high res model guidance. The rest of the forecast remains on track. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure brings warm and dry conditions today, with temperatures well above average. 2) A low pressure system tracking to our north will bring scattered rain showers and storms, starting Saturday morning and lasting into the evening. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather in the afternoon and evening as a cool front moves through the area. Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above average through the weekend. 3) Another ridging pattern will develop across the central and eastern US. The ridge over the central US is not expected to build as high into Canada as this past week, allowing hot air to overrun the top of the ridge and spill onto the region by mid- week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The strong ridge dominating our weather pattern will remain over the region through the evening hours, providing mostly sunny skies and temperatures well above normal, topping out in the mid to upper 80s today. Overnight temperatures remain warm as moisture is advected into the area from the SW, falling into the low to mid 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2... The strong ridge that has dominated the weather pattern for the past week will finally flatten out and sag south, allowing a shortwave and associated cool front to move into the area tomorrow. A period of rain showers and isolated storms are expected develop early in the morning, followed by more robust storms in the afternoon and evening. With the ridge flattening late tonight, a shortwave on the leading edge of an upper level trough will move into the area around sunrise. This should kick off scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two mostly north of the Southern Tier, moving east of the area by mid-morning. A few isolated showers may remain over CNY into the late morning hours. The aforementioned cool front is forecast to push in from the NW starting in the early afternoon hours and slowly track to the SE. This front will kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms through the late evening hours as it slowly progresses through the region. Much of the ingredients needed for severe weather to develop are currently forecast to be present over the area as the front moves through, although some guidance still is uncertain on timing of the needed features to produce severe storms. The aforementioned morning showers could limit surface heating, keeping a cap in place north of the Southern Tier and hindering severe storm development for areas along the northern Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley. Just north of the Southern Tier and extending south into the Catskills and NEPA currently looks to have the best chance for severe weather to develop. CAPE values averaging around 1500 j/kg are forecast to develop across this region by mid afternoon, ahead of the approaching front. 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kts and low level lapse rates around 8C should allow multi-cell storms to organize, with chances for damaging winds and severe hail. Confidence is moderate in severe weather developing as some timing issues remain with the arrival of the front and if it will match up with the best period of shear. The clouds and rain expected in the morning, if they extend farther south than currently forecast, could also hinder severe development. On Sunday, a deep upper level trough will dive into New England from the north. Upslope low across areas east of I-81 should kick off some scattered rain showers during the the day. High pressure will be back in place by Sunday evening. KEY MESSAGE 3... Another ridging pattern is expected to develop Sunday night thru Monday, with northerly flow across the region between a ridge to the west and trough to the east keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area on Monday. The trough to our east will slide east Monday night, allowing the ridge axis to move over the region on Tuesday and SW flow to return, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Hot temperatures are currently forecast to continue through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. We may see some rain showers midweek as a trough tries to move in from the Great Lakes between the departing ridge and another ridge building in the central US, but guidance is too varied at this time for anything other than low confidence in rain showers developing. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will be VFR through the early morning hours on Saturday. A round of showers will move across Central NY as early as 09z and are expected mainly at RME, SYR, and ITH. A passing shower or two cannot be ruled out at ELM and BGM. MVFR ceilings are expected at all Central NY terminals. Guidance is hinting at a brief period for Fuel Alt but this forecast capped restrictions at MVFR for now. AVP is expected to remain dry and in VFR. Westerly winds will remain breezy through the rest of the afternoon with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts and gusts around 15 kts. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming southwesterly early Saturday morning. Winds will also pick up through the morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Outlook: Saturday night...Restrictions from showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Sunday...Mainly VFR; Lingering showers at Central NY terminals. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Low chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...BTL