726 FXUS61 KBGM 060432 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1232 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly lowered temperatures for the next few days. The rest of the forecast package remains on track as newer high-resolution guidance is integrated into the chances for severe weather today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A system tracking to the north of the area will bring scattered rain showers and storms tomorrow. Main storm development expected in the afternoon and evening hours, with some morning daytime rain showers and an isolated storm or two. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather in the afternoon and evening as cold front moves through the area. 2) Another ridging pattern will develop across the central and eastern US. The ridge over the central US is not expected to build as high into Canada as this past week, allowing hot air to overrun the top of the ridge and spill onto the region by mid- week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave on the leading edge of an upper level trough will move into the area around sunrise, which should kick off scattered rain showers with an isolated storm or two mostly north of the Southern Tier, moving east of the area by mid-morning. A few isolated showers may remain over Central NY into the late morning hours. A cold front is forecast to enter into the area from the northwest starting in the early afternoon hours and slowly track to the southeast. This front will trigger scattered rain showers and strong to severe storms through the late evening hours as it slowly progresses through the region. We're seeing ingredients needed for severe weather develop align over the area today as the front moves through. Modeled parameters of up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE, with 30-40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, and some decent mid-level lapse rates will allow for any storms that are triggered to become severe. However, the ongoing uncertainty of timing of the front is coming to a clearer consensus among models. If severe storms were to develop, the main threats include strong to damaging winds, as well as hail. Even with the potential for morning daytime convection and some scattered rain showers, there should be enough destabilization going into the afternoon hours to allow for a rather uncapped environment heading into the late afternoon/early evening hours, which the consensus for the surface front and trough axis to begin to track into our area, meaning any triggered storms could grow fast into strong to severe storms. Currently, the best chances for severe weather development would be from the Southern Tier south and east into NE PA and the Catskills. Given the likelihood for morning daytime convection and showers in Central NY, confidence for severe storms is a little lower, since this may decrease the time for destabilization for severe weather development. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another ridging pattern is expected to develop Sunday night through Monday, with northerly flow across the region between a ridge to the west and trough to the east keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area on Monday. The trough to our east will slide east Monday night, allowing the ridge axis to move over the region on Tuesday and southwest flow to return, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Hot temperatures are currently forecast to continue through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. We may see some rain showers midweek as a trough tries to move in from the Great Lakes between the departing ridge and another ridge building in the central US, but guidance is too varied at this time for anything other than low confidence in rain showers developing. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions will be VFR through the early tomorrow morning. A round of showers will move across Central NY as early as 09z and are expected mainly at RME, SYR, and ITH. A passing shower or two cannot be ruled out at ELM and BGM. MVFR ceilings are expected at RME/SYR/ITH tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions hold a bit longer at ELM/BGM/AVP before showers settle in at the end of the TAF period. There is potential for thunderstorms at all sites late tomorrow afternoon heading into the early evening hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming southwesterly early Saturday morning. Winds will also pick up through the morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Outlook: Saturday night...Restrictions from showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Sunday...Mainly VFR; Lingering showers at Central NY terminals. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Low chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...BTL/ES