216 FXUS64 KBMX 051822 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 122 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast starting Saturday, persisting through next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026 Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast for the next 24-hours, before slowly starting to retrograde to the SE into Saturday morning. At the same time, a closed low pressure will begin to trek east across Texas, with the outer fringes of the trough reaching our area by Saturday afternoon. This closed low will allow for a series of shortwave disturbances to work through the region through the weekend, increasing rain chances into the start of next week. Upper-level ridging will start to build back in over the area by Tuesday, shutting down the more organized rain activity. However, that does not mean rain chances will completely end, as diurnally driven afternoon convection remains in the forecast into next weekend. Temperatures will slowly begin to climb during this time period as well, with afternoon highs reaching the upper-80s by Thursday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026 A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites with a weakening surface ridge in control across Eastern Conus for another day. Areas of high clouds and VFR fair weather cumulus are expected. Winds will be southeast to south at 5-10kts along with a few gusts during this afternoon and again on Saturday with mixing with light and variable to near calm winds overnight. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... There are no fire weather concerns over the coming days. Due to relatively dry high pressure, fair weather is expected through this afternoon with MinRH values between 30-50 percent. High pressure weakens and pushes eastward over the weekend. This will allow for moisture values to rebound and chances for showers and thunderstorms to return starting Saturday and on into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 61 88 68 84 / 0 0 10 40 Anniston 62 89 69 84 / 0 0 10 40 Birmingham 65 88 71 84 / 0 0 20 50 Tuscaloosa 66 89 72 84 / 0 10 40 80 Calera 63 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 50 Auburn 64 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 64 91 71 87 / 0 0 10 40 Troy 62 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../44/ AVIATION...08