877 

FXUS64 KBMX 051937

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

237 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 233 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026



- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast starting

  Saturday, persisting through next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This afternoon through Thursday)

Issued at 233 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026



Surface high pressure is beginning to weaken across Eastern Conus

this afternoon. Areas of high clouds and some fair weather

cumulus are present across Central Alabama this afternoon on

satellite, except across the southeast counties where mostly

sunny skies are noted. Fair and less humid will continue for one

more day for all and for many on Saturday as the surface ridge

remains the dominant feature. Now into Saturday, the ridge center

will slowly nudge southeast as the overall ridge continues to

slowly weaken. Temperatures overall are getting back closer to

normal and will continue to nudge upward through next week

outside of convection.



Onshore flow returns this weekend in the lower levels as the

surface ridge continues to weaken and push off into the Western

Atlantic. An upper low over Mexico will push northeastward into

the Central Plains by Sunday. Shortwave disturbances will

propagate periodically around a Deep South and Gulf upper ridge

with the southwest flow between the upper low and the Gulf ridge

this weekend into Monday as the low opens up and continues

northeast into the Northern Plains yielding a return to daily

convection chances. By Tuesday, this shortwave progresses into a

larger trough stretching from Eastern Canada, southward to the 

Great Lakes, further into Eastern Conus, and dipping into Alabama 

with continued daily convection. By Wednesday into Thursday, the 

trough continues eastward to the Atlantic Coast but with the 

southern portion of it retrograding back into the Northern Gulf. 

This will result in lower but still present isolated to scattered 

diurnally enhanced convection chances as we finish the extended 

for the middle of next week.



08



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 121 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026



A VFR forecast is expected for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites

with a weakening surface ridge in control across Eastern Conus

for another day. Areas of high clouds and VFR fair weather 

cumulus are expected. Winds will be southeast to south at 5-10kts 

along with a few gusts during this afternoon and again on Saturday

with mixing with light and variable to near calm winds overnight.



08



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



There are no fire weather concerns over the coming days. Due to

relatively dry high pressure, fair weather is expected through

this afternoon with MinRH values between 30-50 percent. High

pressure weakens and pushes eastward over the weekend. This will

allow for moisture values to rebound and chances for showers and

thunderstorms to return starting Saturday and on into next week.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     61  88  68  84 /   0   0  10  40 

Anniston    62  89  69  84 /   0   0  10  40 

Birmingham  65  88  71  84 /   0   0  20  50 

Tuscaloosa  66  89  72  84 /   0  10  40  80 

Calera      63  90  70  86 /   0   0  20  50 

Auburn      64  88  70  86 /   0   0   0  10 

Montgomery  64  91  71  87 /   0   0  10  40 

Troy        62  89  69  88 /   0   0  10  20 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...08

AVIATION...08