382 FXUS61 KBTV 051844 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 244 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As of 242 PM EDT Friday... The potential for a few strong to locally severe storms has increased on Saturday afternoon and evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 242 PM EDT Friday... 1. A few strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening with isolated gusty winds, hail, and frequent lighting as primary threat. 2. Deep layer ridging will build overhead on Tuesday which will lead to well above normal temperatures through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 242 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1: The potential for a few strong to locally severe storms has increased slightly acrs our cwa for Saturday aftn/evening, but still some uncertainty on amount of instability. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery show mid/upper lvl ridge acrs acrs central PA into NY, while developing trof is located over the northern Plains/Great Lakes. Water vapor shows a rather disorganized mid/upper lvl trof evolution with several embedded s/w's and multiple pockets of enhanced mid lvl moisture, which is advecting quickly in the westerly flow aloft. A series of warm frnts/moisture boundaries wl be lifting from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa late tonight into Saturday morning. Initially llvls wl be very dry, as bl rh's this aftn are only in the 25% to 35% range, so precip wl have difficulties reach the sfc. However, as better dynamics and moisture in all lvls arrives btwn 12z-16z Saturday, a period of showers are likely. The best forcing from 700 to 500mb vorticity and deepest moisture fields wl be along the International Border, so I have the highest 60 to 80% in that area. As initial moisture and lift exits our cwa by early aftn, a well defined mid/upper lvl dry slot is progged to move into our central/southern cwa, which is evident on water vapor over the western Great Lakes. Soundings indicate a rather large 850 to 300mb dry layer developing, which should help to erode some of the clouds and produce a few breaks in the overcast. The amount of clearing and sfc heating wl drive our instability parameters and determine how robust convection can become associated with secondary vort. Thinking a 1 to 3 hour window btwn 18-21z should help sfc temps into the mid 70s to lower 80s with dwpts near 60F, resulting in sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1500 J/kg. As mid/upper lvl trof with embedded potent secondary s/w energy interacts with this instability another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. Deep layer shear is favorable with 35 to 50 knots, as ribbon of 700mb winds increases associated with digging s/w energy. Did note a modest EML in the 700-500mb layer with lapse rates 6.5 to 7.0 C/km associated with dry slot advecting into our cwa. DCAPE values are near 1000 J/kg, with mostly unidirectional wind flow, so primary convective mode would be isolated pulse, evolving into mini-bowing signatures. Wind and lightning would be primary threat from any of the stronger convective elements. Crnt thinking is mostly along and south of a SLK to BTV to MPV line, with less instability acrs the NEK. Highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s, if more sun develops acrs the CPV with westerly downslope flow and progged 925mb temps near 20C, local highs in the mid 80s are possible. Any convective threat dissipates by 03z with some lingering showers likely acrs the trrn on Saturday night. Additional s/w energy and 850 to 500mb moisture rotates acrs our cwa late Sat night into Sunday with more showers likely. The dynamics are impressive but instability is lacking, so maybe an isolated embedded rumble of thunder is possible on Sunday morning. The timing of strongest dynamics and best instability is mostly south of our cwa on Sunday, so mostly cool and showery weather is anticipated in the morning with decreasing areal coverage of showers by mid to late afternoon. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mid/upper lvl ridge builds into our cwa on Monday with drier and warmer conditions expected and comfortable humidity values. Areas of patchy fog possible, especially dack valleys on Sunday night. KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will become anchored across the North Country and northern New York by late Tuesday afternoon. The ridge will bring much drier air and and end to our rainfall chances as of Tuesday morning. In addition, much warmer air is expected to advect from the west with temperatures likely warming into the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. A plume of modified gulf moisture will advect into the Northeast late Wednesday and Thursday which allow dewpoints to rise into the 60s. With temperatures warming to near 90 degrees on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, we could see heat indices approaching 95 degrees. There are some signs on the global guidance that we may see a few showers Thursday and/or Friday afternoon but subsidence may win out and keep us dry. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail with patchy high clouds. Dry air will limit fair weather cumulus, but some could develop around 7000-8000 ft agl about 16z-22z. Southwest winds are expected at KSLK and KMSS at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts 15-19 knots at KMSS, but remaining terminals will experience terrain driven flows around 5 knots. Ceilings will begin to lower from west to east as a surface trough approaches the St. Lawrence Valley after 06z Saturday, but conditions will likely remain VFR with precipitation translating east after 06z Saturday as well. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber DISCUSSION...Taber/Clay AVIATION...Clay