960 FXUS65 KBYZ 051203 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 603 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly warm and dry into early Saturday. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a late day cold front. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe over eastern Montana. - Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday into next week. && .UPDATE... Quiet night ongoing as ridge builds from the west. Dewpt depressions are only 1-3F across the east and still feel localized valley fog is a possibility between now and daybreak, and in fact the latest HRRR runs favor fog just a bit more. Otherwise, today will be dry with temps well into the 80s, consistent w/ 700mb temps rising to near +10C. Saturday will be hotter with mid 80s west to mid 90s east. Daily record highs should be approached at Sheridan & Baker (the two sites w/ records most achievable). Wouldn't be surprised to see Sheridan, Broadus and Miles City push the upper 90s on Saturday as the cold front arrives late. Height falls and this cold front will result in a chance of afternoon and evening t-storms. The Day2 risk still highlights our east with a marginal risk of severe storms, and a slight risk near Miles City and Baker northward thru northeast MT and western ND. 700mb temp plume near +15C over southeast MT is very warm for a severe risk, especially for hail, so the greater potential is definitely north where mid level temps are cooler. Convection further west and south will be high-based and weaker. Western areas will see better chances of showers late Saturday night as large scale ascent w/ the Pacific trof increases. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Next 7 Days (Through next Thursday)... Upper level ridging builds in today, bringing warmer and mostly dry conditions into early Saturday, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. A deepening Pacific trough over the west coast will gradually turn flow out of the southwest, allowing wind gusts to increase to 20 to 40 mph over the mountains and foothills (highest over the mountains) this afternoon. Then, overnight into early Saturday morning, a low level jet will bring occasional gusts of 20 to 30 mph near the Dakota border. As the trough approaches and continues to turn flow out of the southwest, moisture will continue to flow into the region and winds will again be breezy over the mountains and foothills. A cold front moving through will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) to develop over the west in the afternoon, moving northeast through the evening. Currently, strong to severe storms are most favored over northeast Montana, with large hail and strong winds as the main threats. Behind the cold front, Sunday will be cooler and unsettled, with widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) through the day as the trough moves through the region. Highs will range from 60s over the west to near 80 over the east. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, make sure to stay weather aware and have a plan to move to a safe location if a storm approaches. Into at least the middle of next week, conditions look to remain unsettled as another trough sets up to the west, continuing to allow additional moisture into the region and occasional waves of energy. Archer .AVIATION... Issued 12Z. Localized valley fog is possible east of Rosebud County thru ~14z this morning, but confidence in this impacting a TAF site is very low (<10%). VFR will otherwise prevail over the next 24hrs as high pressure aloft builds over the region. SW winds will turn breezy at KLVM this afternoon, with gusts to 25kts. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 088 058/088 056/070 046/079 054/083 053/076 051/071 0/U 02/T 26/T 41/B 11/B 46/T 65/T LVM 085 049/084 048/065 036/073 045/074 043/067 040/062 0/U 02/T 58/T 30/B 13/T 58/T 77/T HDN 089 055/091 054/073 044/080 052/084 051/078 049/071 0/U 02/T 26/T 51/U 11/B 35/T 66/T MLS 086 059/094 057/075 048/077 056/086 056/079 053/073 0/U 02/B 32/T 61/U 21/B 33/W 65/T 4BQ 087 059/097 058/077 048/079 057/089 056/081 053/074 0/U 02/T 32/T 71/U 11/B 24/W 54/T BHK 083 056/094 057/079 046/075 053/087 055/080 052/074 0/U 02/U 41/B 61/U 21/B 33/W 54/W SHR 088 051/095 053/074 042/081 050/085 049/078 046/071 0/U 02/T 27/T 71/U 11/B 35/T 67/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings