266 FXUS65 KBYZ 051838 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 1238 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly warm and dry into early Saturday. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a late day cold front. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe over eastern Montana. - Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday into next week. - Cooler temperatures generally in the 70s F for the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Next 7 Days (Through next Friday)... Saturday will see warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s F with upper level ridging. A weak cold front is expected to move through the region in the afternoon which will help to kick start convection across the region. Upper level troughing will move into the region increasing 0-6 km Bulk Shear into the 40-60 kt range. Southeast winds will advect moisture into the region increasing dewpoints into the 50s F increasing CAPE values into the 1,000-2,500 J/kg range near the Dakotas border. A low level jet looks to increase Saturday night increasing low level rotation. However, model soundings are indicating persistent capping throughout the day tomorrow even in the most favorable environments. This cap will likely be overcome by terrain or weak frontal forcing in the western CWA before moving to the north and east. Models are indicating that the greatest thunderstorm impacts will be in northeast Montana. However, locations from Rosebud County and east have a risk level 1 of 5 for severe storms with small parts of northern Fallon and Custer Counties having a risk level 2 of 5. Large dewpoint depressions and moderate elevated CAPE means strong winds (>60 mph) and hail (>1 in) are the main threats with this convection. Sunday will see the upper level trough drift to the east and correspondingly shift the threat for severe weather to the east. Weak to moderate instability with a much stronger cold front is expected to lead to a few thunderstorms across Southeast Montana. Locations in far southeast Montana have a risk level 1 of 5 for severe storms. The main threats will these storms will be strong winds (>60 mph) and hail (>1 in). For the work week we will be under the influence of another upper level trough bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, most of the severe weather is expected to stay in the Dakotas. Monday will see temperatures in the 70s F across the region. A strong temperature gradient will set up over the region Tuesday with low 70s F in the west and mid 80s F in the east. A cold front late Tuesday is expected to decrease temperatures into the 60s and 70s F Wednesday through Friday. Torgerson .AVIATION... 18z Discussion... IFR conditions with mostly light winds will continue through most of the period. Mostly easterly winds will shift to the NW behind a weak FROPA that pushes through KBIL around 08z. There will likely be variable winds at all sites but winds should stay below 12kts at all sites except KLVM. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058/089 056/072 044/078 054/081 052/072 047/069 047/071 00/B 28/T 40/B 01/B 67/T 65/T 44/T LVM 049/084 048/066 035/072 044/071 041/063 037/062 037/066 01/B 79/T 20/B 04/T 78/T 76/T 45/T HDN 054/092 054/074 042/079 051/082 050/074 046/069 045/071 01/B 16/T 60/U 00/B 57/T 65/T 54/T MLS 059/094 057/077 046/076 055/084 055/075 050/070 048/071 00/B 33/W 80/U 20/B 55/T 45/W 43/W 4BQ 059/098 058/080 046/078 056/087 055/075 049/069 048/069 00/B 23/T 70/U 21/B 35/T 54/T 43/T BHK 056/093 056/081 045/075 051/085 053/075 048/069 046/068 00/N 31/B 71/U 22/T 45/T 45/T 44/W SHR 050/095 052/076 040/080 049/083 048/073 042/067 041/068 01/B 17/T 60/U 11/B 47/T 66/T 54/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings