954 FXUS61 KCLE 042358 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 758 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered relative humidity for this afternoon and low temperatures for tonight. Tried to indicate two rounds of precipitation during the Friday night/Saturday time frame with the first being after midnight Friday night, then showers and thunderstorms expanding again during the afternoon on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Friday will trend warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 2.) Rain chances return Friday night then again Saturday afternoon with the potential for scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. 3.) Above normal temperatures return for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A high amplitude ridge extends north to the Great Lakes Region. This ridge will gradually build east through Friday with southwesterly flow increasing. Above normal temperatures will expand eastward across the area with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. A lake breeze still looks possible along the northeast lakeshore and towards Erie so temperatures will max out a few degrees lower in that area. Otherwise dewpoints will gradually start to trend upwards into the mid and upper 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... As the ridge axis shifts to the east on Friday, active weather returns with multiple shortwaves and a trough pushing a cold front south out of Canada. The first good push of moisture in the 850-700mb layer arrives Friday evening as a shortwave moves out of the Plains and helps to flatten the ridge aloft. A low level jet will provide the lift for showers to expand east across Lake Erie Friday night with a few thunderstorms possible. This more focused lift shifts east of the area by Saturday morning leaving cloudy skies and decreasing coverage of showers. However the potential remains for at least a few showers to continue as a deep moisture axis with PW values of 1.75" will be located overhead. The question on Saturday will be how well we recover with some breaks in the clouds and a cold front settling south Saturday afternoon and evening. It looks as if the more favorable axis for airmass recovery could arrive from the west with 1200-1500 J/kg of CAPE returning. The NAM shows an area of 2500+ CAPE but this seems to be due to the simulated dewpoints of 70 degrees in the model which are likely too high. It seems the potential for greatest coverage of storms will be where the instability interacts with the approaching front which may be across the southern half of the forecast area. Some training of storms may even occur with nearly unidirectional flow aloft but have at least 50-60 pops everywhere for Saturday afternoon and evening. A 50 knot jet at 500mb ahead of the upper trough swinging through the eastern Great Lakes will create a concern for scattered strong to severe storms and the Storm Prediction Center has the area included in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday, generally between 2-8 PM. Damaging winds will be the primary concern along with locally heavy rain and some potential for training. KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures behind this trough will trend cooler for Sunday before a warming trend returns for next week. The trend will be for ridge to build aloft again although with the potential for it to be delayed by a trough lifting out of the Plains. It looks like we will be dealing with more summer-like heat for the middle of next week with temperatures approaching 90 degrees or higher for portions of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR will continue through most of the TAF period. There may be FEW-SCT high-based (above 5k feet) cumulus Friday afternoon. A weakening batch of convection will spread in from the west- northwest late Friday evening/Friday night, largely after the end of the TAF period though did include some VCSH at the end of CLE's 30-hour TAF. A lingering lake breeze along the eastern Lake Erie shoreline early this evening will quickly dissipate, allowing light (<7kt) south- southwest winds to take hold overnight into Friday. Winds shift more southwesterly at 10-17kt with gusts to around 25kt Friday afternoon. A lake breeze will likely turn winds more west-northwest at ERI Friday afternoon. With more of a gradient than today, it's unlikely the lake breeze reaches CLE. Outlook...A weakening batch of showers and possibly some thunderstorms with limited non-VFR moves east-southeast across the region Friday night into early Saturday. Thunderstorms with non-VFR likely re-develop Saturday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front. VFR favored Sunday and Monday. Shower and thunder chances with non-VFR potential return Tuesday. && .MARINE... A high pressure ridge exits slowly SE'ward before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across Lake Erie this Saturday evening through Saturday night. Behind the front, another ridge affects Lake Erie through Tuesday as the embedded high pressure center moves from near the northern Great Lakes to near the Mid-Atlantic states. Waves are expected to be mainly 3 feet or less through the forecast period. Light and variable winds associated with a lake breeze give way to primarily S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots this evening through Saturday, ahead of the front. These winds should flirt with 20 knots at times Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. As a result, occasional 4 to 5 footers are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday evening, especially in open U.S. waters and ON waters of the central and eastern basins. The cold front passage and subsequent building ridge will cause winds to veer to NW'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 to 10 knots Saturday evening through Saturday night. On Sunday through Tuesday, winds around 5 to 15 knots should veer gradually from N'erly to SE'erly. However, these winds should trend onshore each late morning through early evening due to daily lake breeze development. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Jaszka