368 FXUS61 KCLE 060537 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 137 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast to note. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along a cold front this evening through Saturday night. Some storms may be severe Saturday afternoon and evening. 2.) After a brief period of cooler weather this Sunday, temperatures are expected to rebound this Monday through Friday, June 12th. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Aloft, a high pressure ridge exits E'ward tonight through Saturday night and gives way to cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances over our region as a primary trough axis moves from near western ON and the north-central United States to near New England and the Delmarva Peninsula by daybreak Sunday. At the surface, ridging exits generally SE'ward before a cold front sweeps SE'ward through our region late Saturday afternoon through the predawn hours of Sunday morning. The front will be preceded by a low-level return flow of warm, humid, and unstable air originating over the Gulf. Behind the front, a surface ridge begins to build from northern ON and the Upper Great Lakes through daybreak Sunday. Periodic and scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening, especially after sunset, through Saturday night as weak to moderate instability, including elevated CAPE, is released by the following: low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave disturbances and along the surface cold front; moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axes and along the upper-reaches of the cold front. Note: a WSW'erly LLJ should develop over/near Lake Erie this evening through about daybreak Saturday and enhance moist isentropic ascent and shower/thunderstorm potential, respectively, over and near the lake. Some thunderstorms may become severe this Saturday afternoon into the evening as the warm/moist sector boundary layer destabilizes via peeks of sunshine and daytime heating, and moderate to strong deep-layer bulk shear resides in our region. Damaging straight-line wind gusts are expected to be the primary severe convective weather hazard as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer yields steep low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE Saturday afternoon into early evening. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, sizable MUCAPE in the hail growth zone and ambient melting levels near 10kft AGL should support a threat for marginally-severe hail. Periods of torrential rainfall amidst unusually-high PWAT's in the warm/moist sector are expected. However, the flash flood threat still appears to be minimal since W'erly to WNW'erly mean mid-level flow should be fairly- strong and exhibit a large component perpendicular to the front, which should limit the potential for training convection. As the front at the surface and aloft exits SE'ward, showers and thunderstorms should exit our region generally from WNW to ESE between about sunset Saturday evening and daybreak Sunday morning. Tonight's lows are expected to reach the 60's to lower 70's around daybreak Saturday. Highs should reach the mid 70's to mid 80's late Saturday afternoon. The coolest highs are expected along and within several miles of ~59F Lake Erie, from northeastern Cuyahoga County, OH to Erie County, PA, due to lake breeze development during the late morning through early evening. Note: low-level convergence/moist ascent along the lake breeze front should contribute to shower and thunderstorm initiation Saturday afternoon through early evening. Weak and net low-level CAA behind the cold front should contribute to lows reaching the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A ridge is expected to affect the Lake Erie region and Upper OH Valley on Sunday through Friday, June 12th. Aloft, the mean ridge axis should drift from near the western Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley toward the eastern seaboard of the United States. At the surface, the primary high pressure center should wobble SE'ward from northern ON and the Upper Great Lakes to Atlantic waters east of Bermuda. This projected weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will allow net low-level WAA to impact our CWA. In addition, a low-level moisture tap to the southern Gulf Stream and/or Gulf should develop this Monday through Friday and allow humidity to increase noticeably, especially on Tuesday onward. Moderating temperatures should include late afternoon highs in the mid 70's to mid 80's on Sunday followed by late afternoon highs in the mid 80's to mid 90's this Thursday and Friday. Note: sufficient daytime heating of surface air over land surrounding ~59F Lake Erie and a favorably-weak synoptic MSLP gradient should allow a lake breeze to develop and affect locations within several miles of the entire lake during the late morning through early evening hours of this Sunday and Monday, respectively. The coolest high temperatures are expected within the lake breeze. Fair weather is expected on Sunday through Sunday night due, in part to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the ridge. Subtle shortwave troughs should ripple generally eastward through the ridge aloft this Monday through Friday. Low-level convergence/moist ascent along attendant surface trough axes may trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon through early evening, as a moistening boundary layer destabilizes via daytime heating. Latest trends in NWP model guidance do not depict a strong signal for any storms to become severe. However, the combination of appreciable boundary layer instability and moderate deep-layer bulk shear may support a few strong to severe storms during the afternoon and early evening hours of Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Several rounds of showers will move across the region through tonight. The first round will continue to move across Lake Erie over the next few hours, likely just clipping Northwest Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the overnight hours. Can't rule out any isolated embedded thunderstorm with this initial push of showers, but only have a TS mention through 12Z/Sat for KTOL. Another area of showers and thunderstorms will move across Indiana into western Ohio later this morning which may clip terminals along the I-75 corridor before the region sees a brief break in precipitation late this morning into early this afternoon. Hi-res models are continuing to hint at a line of thunderstorms developing south of Lake Erie and pushing south across terminals late this afternoon/early evening (~20Z/Sat to 00Z/Sun). Maintained PROB30 for this timeframe with the 06Z TAF issuance, but will likely begin to add TEMPO groups as confidence increases ahead of the 12Z forecast cycle. Any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop and move over a terminal will be capable of producing MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities. Any afternoon/evening thunderstorm that develops may reach severe limits and cause strong wind gusts and large hail. Southwest winds have decreased slightly early this morning to 8-12 knots but they are expected to increase later this morning to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Locally higher wind gusts possible in strong to severe thunderstorms. Winds will turn westerly while decreasing to 8 knots or less tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog early Sunday morning. Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Southwest winds on Lake Erie will increase to 15-25 knots tonight ahead of a cold front, with the stronger winds focused towards the east end of the lake on Saturday. This will lead to elevated waves in the open waters of 3-6 feet. The cold front pushes south of Lake Erie late Saturday afternoon/evening with winds decreasing quickly. Thunderstorms will also be possible tonight and Saturday with a few strong storms possible on the lake Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday and Monday with a light onshore flow Sunday and 15 knots or less on Monday. Southerly flow resumes on Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jaszka AVIATION...13 MARINE...10