143 FXUS61 KCTP 060612 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 212 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The Slight Risk Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday covers all of central PA; Enhanced wind threat for the late afternoon and evening hours, targeting the Laurel Highlands, Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley. * Introduced a mention of patchy fog late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer heat for the first weekend of June. 2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. 3) Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer heat for the first weekend of June. The 8-10 day stretch of dry weather will continue through the first half of Saturday with a mild night tonight featuring low temps in the 60s. Max temps Saturday will once again be +5-15F above climo into the 80-90F range. The exception will be across the NW Mtns where highs will be about 5 deg F lower than Friday's. Dewpoints will rise into the 60s on Saturday, which will bring noticeable humidity back to the region. Saturday night will also be noticeably warmer than recent nights, with lows generally in the 60s. -------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. A cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms Saturday through Saturday night. SPC expanded the level 2/5 (SLGT) severe t-storm risk, which includes all of central PA. Latest hires guidance shows considerable uncertainty with respect to the number and timing of convective elements through the day Saturday, with some of the guidance showing showers and leftover thunderstorms rolling into the NW zones as early as Saturday morning. The highest chance for severe weather will be in the late afternoon and evening hours, sparked by a boost of larger scale ascent linked to the thermally direct, right entrance region of a robust mid and upper level jet segment. This feature will be rotating through the base of a potent short wave with strong upper level diffluence preceding it. SBCAPE climbs to near 1500 J/kg Saturday afternoon and early evening with increasing deep layer wind shear. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe hazards, but a tornado can not be ruled out particularly in western zones where there is a little more turning in the low levels of the atmosphere. The latest outlook from SPC increased the chance of damaging winds for much of the region as well. Model data has reduced odds for rain on Sunday, with much of the precip ending around midnight Sat night. Rainfall totals are expected to be highest in the west and northwest, with storms producing less rainfall over the southeast as the evening wears on and daytime heating is lost. This pattern does not bode well for ongoing drought conditions. Patchy fog will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning as clouds clear out behind the cold front and the wet ground allows for sfc RH near 100 pct in spots. Key limiting factor will be how quickly the winds diminish as skies clear out. -------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains. Following a modest cool down on Monday, emerging model data continues to signal dry precip pattern with above normal temperatures for the rest of next week. Even the cool down on Monday will see above normal high temperatures for most of the area. Long range models diverge on potential solutions toward the end of next week. A prevailing ridge in place over the eastern US will ensure above normal temperatures (80s and 90s), but an upper level closed low could develop. Such a solution would bring cool temperatures aloft steepening lapse rates and leading to daily afternoon pulse thunderstorms. If the upper level low does not form, very warm and drier conditions would be more likely. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Minimal cloud cover is expected through 12Z Saturday outside of some thin mid-level clouds currently being observed at airfields just west of the region (ERI/IDI) that will filter into the northwestern terminals (BFD/UNV). Recent NBM/HREF blend brings in some shower chances to BFD ~12Z Saturday with a low- end TSRA threat through ~15Z, thus have introduced this narrow window along with drying conditions and some breaks in cloud cover across all of central Pennsylvania for the late morning/early afternoon hours with moderate-to-high (~60-70%) confidence based on recent HREF/GLAMP model guidance. In this earlier timeframe, marginal LLWS thresholds could be met at BFD/JST with a strengthening westerly LLJ; however, bulk of guidance keeps the magnitude of this shear just low enough to keep mentions out of the 06Z TAF package. The main period of concern for aviation purposes across central Pennsylvania remains after 18Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday with severe thunderstorm potential (damaging winds/large hail main concerns) and potential for fog formation overnight into Sunday morning. Recent guidance continues to develop TSRA in very close proximity to BFD in the ~19Z-21Z Saturday timeframe. Given ample destabilization and shear, expect TSRA to largely grow upscale and impact all of the western terminals as this complex shifts mainly southward (with a slight easterly component) across the forecast area. The 06Z TAF package does highlight BFD/JST/AOO/UNV as most probable for TSRA at the airfield, with HREF probabilities reaching between 30%-50% of lightning occurring at these airfields while further south/east there remains slightly lower probabilities due to more broken storm coverage. Despite higher probabilities, the 06Z TAF package outlines PROB30s mainly due to lower confidence in timing, which will hopefully be tightened up in future TAF packages. In TSRA across western terminals, damaging winds will be the main hazard and gave some thought to including high winds/gusts in TSRA mentions; however, would like to see slightly higher confidence in where TSRA fire this evening before including those mentions. After 00Z Sunday, mentions for SHRA/TSRA decrease across much of the area; however, clearing skies will allow for fog formation and restrictions possible between 00-12Z Sunday. Current HREF outlines highest probabilities for IFR/LIFR conditions at BFD/JST; however, reasonable worst-case scenario extends these mentions to AOO/UNV/IPT closer to sunrise. Outlook... Sun-Tue...VFR favored outside of isolated morning fog. Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA early Sun & again late Tue. Wed...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Banghoff AVIATION...Beaty