301 FXUS63 KDDC 052202 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 502 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and noticeably hotter Friday afternoon with breezy south winds. - Showers and thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City Saturday night, with no severe weather expected. - A rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through midweek, with near record high temperatures near 100 by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The synoptic pattern has changed slightly as the ridging in the east has eased significantly; the trough in the west has become a cut-off low that sunk into Mexico. As a result the upper-level flow has become zonal. Current surface analysis has a region of low pressure from South Dakota down into Colorado with a stationary front linking them. It is forecast this will slowly descend into NW Kansas into the afternoon. From there, the forecast focus is on weather storms will fire along the boundary in the afternoon. Models continue to trend towards a drier solution. The location remains very similar with an axis from Hamilton to Trego counties. Some models, such as the NAMNST, have this line transposed northward leaving the CWA nearly entirely dry. CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg will be paired with very little deep layer shear (25 KTs). Without enough shear, the severe potential is quite low. With these elevated storms, surface to 3km lapse rates are very high at 10+. The lack of moisture is expected to keep the wind threat down. Despite the conditional nature, there remains a slim opportunity for marginally severe hail and wind gusts. However, the overwhelmingly likely outcome is a few isolated benign thunderstorms that dissipate quickly. The atmosphere is the most favorable in northeast Ellis, so if a storm can develop and sustain itself to access the better conditions a severe storm can not be ruled out. Highs are forecast in the 90s for all of SW Kansas today. For Saturday's precipitation chances have similarly decrease via models/ensembles over the last few days. Now the PoPs are nearly all south and east of Dodge City as the associated MCV is now placed closer to the center of the KS/OK border. Areas in the CWA may see a prolonged period of on and off storms well into Sunday in the wettest solutions. Despite solid PWATs of >1.5", accumulations are only forecast to be around 0.25-0.5" and is back via ensembles. The atmosphere continues to transport large amounts of moisture from the Gulf. However, it is not expected that these storms will be efficient enough to take full advantage of the moisture present. Despite this, if a storm lingers over a specific area, marginal flooding may occur in flood prone areas. Sunday begins a warm up to above normal temperatures after a cooler Saturday in 80s. Sunday will see far SW Kansas push towards 100 degrees. By Monday, ensembles have much of KS/OK border approach or even surpass the triple digit mark. By Tuesday, nearly the entire CWA will have a >40% chance to see 100+ degrees with the heat continuing through Thursday. Also on Tuesday, the eastern portion of the area has another round of precipitation, but so much uncertainty remains that the event will need to be closer in order to give an accurate and detail forecast. Other than the precipitation, it is expected to be a quiet week with the heat headlining the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Prevailing southerly winds 10 to 20kt are expected to persist through early Saturday as a frontal boundary attendant to a surface low in southeast Colorado remains situated across west central Kansas into southern Nebraska. Winds are then forecast to increase 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt generally after 14-16Z as the aforementioned surface low and attendant frontal boundary lift northward, giving way to a deepening lee side trough in eastern Colorado and a tightening pressure gradient across western Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KBJ AVIATION...JJohnson