247 

FXUS63 KDDC 060330

AFDDDC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026



...Updated Aviation/Key Messages/Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of Dodge

  City Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. 



- After near seasonal temperatures Saturday, a rapid warming

  trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday.



- Several afternoons of intense heat are expected next week,

  with afternoon temperatures near 100. The hottest day will

  likely be Wednesday combined with strong south winds. 



- Dry weather will prevail across SW KS through next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026



00z DDC sounding was quite unstable, with CAPE over 3200 J/kg

and a lifted index of -10, but it was also strongly capped, and

despite strong outflow boundaries, most of SW KS has remained

dry Friday as expected. Elevated south winds and elevated dew

points will hold temperatures in the 60s at most locations

through sunrise. 



Closed midlevel subtropical cyclone over Far West Texas

currently will track northeast to the Permian Basin at sunrise,

to near Childress, Texas at 7 pm Saturday, and across eastern

sections of the DDC CWA Saturday night. Most of the system's

rain will fall within the much stronger lift, east of the low's

track, across Oklahoma and central/eastern Kansas. Still, at 

least some showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the 

southeast zones, mainly southeast of Dodge City, Saturday 

afternoon and evening. WPC QPF fields show 0.10-0.20 inch across

these southeast zones, and that appears reasonable. Subsidence 

beneath the western periphery of the cyclone's circulation will 

keep most of SW KS dry through Saturday night. Will comment that

some CAMs bring rain showers as far west as about US 283 

Saturday night. With the additional clouds, Saturday's

temperatures will be held back to the mid 80s. 



The subtropical cyclone is modeled to weaken to an ejecting

shortwave, reaching the Missouri valley by 7 pm Sunday. Once

this wave leaves SW KS, a strong warming trend will begin, with

afternoon temperatures rebounding to the lower to mid 90s

Sunday. 



Midlevel heights rise strongly Monday and Tuesday, for a

continuation of the warming trend. NBM guidance is quite hot,

showing 70-80% probability of temperatures reaching 100 Tuesday

afternoon, across most of SW KS. Wednesday looks at least

equally as hot, and may offer near record highs with strong

southwest winds and prefrontal compression. Strong northern

plains trough Wednesday is progged to send a cold front into 

SW KS by Thursday, shaving temperatures back closer to June

normals. 



Rain opportunities through next week will be limited, but they

will not be zero. A shortwave riding the periphery of the

building ridge may generate some storms favoring the northeast

counties late Monday, and there may be some convection near the

frontal boundary Wednesday night. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026



VFR will continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts

of cirrus. All airports are expected to remain dry through this

period. Light south winds of 7-12 kts will prevail through 

15z Sat. After 15z Sat, south winds will increase at all

airports, gusting 25-28 kts. 



&&



.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Turner

AVIATION...Turner

KEY MESSAGES...Turner