531 FXUS63 KDLH 050818 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 318 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from the Brainerd Lakes area eastward across the Interstate 35 corridor and northwest Wisconsin. - Additional rainfall amounts through the weekend, mainly for locations near and south of US-2, average 0.10 to 0.30 inch, with most getting the lower amounts or less. Localized locations under heavier storms could receive around 0.50 inch. - Heat dome next week brings high confidence in at least Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat-related impacts to entire region away from Lake Superior shorelines. Areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) impacts north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A weak cool front is moving through the Northland this morning, with a couple clusters of thunderstorms ongoing this morning ahead of the front. Storms have shown a weakening trend over the last couple hours, and expect that trend to continue through sunrise. In the wake of rain, fog development is expected especially at locations that saw rainfall Thursday evening/night. Fog will linger through sunrise. This afternoon and evening, a stronger cold front drives south from Ontario into the region. Enhanced moisture and daytime heating will build a moderately unstable environment ahead of the front. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, warranting a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal risk) for severe weather from Brainerd, eastward across the Interstate 35 corridor and all of northwest Wisconsin. Deep-layer wind shear will be stronger than previous days, supporting organized storm structures capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. The risk will peak during the late afternoon and evening hours before tracking south and east out of the area Friday night. Total rainfall through the end of the week will remain light and highly variable, generally ranging from one- tenth to four- tenths of an inch, though localized higher amounts can accompany the stronger storms while some areas miss out entirely. High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, bringing a brief reprieve with clear skies and dry conditions. This quiet interlude will be short-lived as a upper-level ridge begins to amplify over the central United States by Sunday. Southerly to southwesterly low-level winds will tighten, initiating a significant and prolonged warming trend. High temperatures this weekend will quickly climb well above seasonal averages, placing the region firmly into an early summer weather pattern. A short reprieve from the heat is possible Monday as a weather system within southwesterly flow rotates northeastward into the region, bringing Gulf moisture northward. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the 70s and lower 80s. A couple concerns with this weather pattern - a warm and dry ridge is hard to overcome, and convective activity to our south couple prevent deeper moisture from advecting as far north as the Northland, limiting rain coverage and amounts. A heat dome sets up over the Great Lakes region through next week. Multiple days of consecutive high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast for interior portions of the Northland. Southerly flow will continue to draw high Gulf moisture northward, driving up dew points and increasing humidity levels. Due to the extended duration of these hot days and warm overnight lows, we will be monitoring the need for possible heat headlines by the middle of next week. Nearly all of the region will see Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat risk impacts with areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) impacts possible in north- central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. Active southwesterly flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge will maintain daily, isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday, though no widespread pattern- breaking rainfall is expected to disrupt the heat. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A couple clusters of thunderstorms continue tonight, with the most significant impacting DLH to start the taf period. Expect a period of heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40mph as the storm moves over the terminal. Expect convection to gradually diminish overnight but will need to watch HYR in the next 2-3hrs, if that trend does not continue. Fog is possible early Friday morning, mainly near the Twin Ports and along both the North and South Shores. This fog will likely spread inland, impact DLH with visibilities as low as 1-2SM for several hours around sunrise. Lower vis (3-5SM) at HIB is also possible given recent rainfall tonight. Any low vis/cig will improve with sunrise. Winds overnight will be light and variable. On Friday, more thunderstorms may develop and will most likely affect BRD/HYR and possibly DLH during the afternoon. Otherwise, expect light winds and quiet conditions. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Quiet conditions prevail across the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior through Saturday. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots today with waves 1 to 2 feet or less. Winds become light and variable around 5 to 10 knots Saturday. Waves will drop to 1 foot or less for Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and night, with locally higher wind gusts and small hail possible near any stronger storms. Expect a wind shift to easterly Saturday evening, then to the northeast on Sunday and increasing to from 10 to 15 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A weak cold front moves through the area today, with light westerly winds this morning increasing to 5-10 mph this afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight, then predominantly from the northwest to north Saturday at less than 10 mph. Low- level moisture continues to increase today, keeping minimum relative humidity values above 30 percent this afternoon, despite highs warming into the 80s. Wetting rain chances have dwindled, with sparse, scattered amounts under one- quarter of an inch expected through tonight. Dry conditions rule Saturday and Sunday, with relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent north of the Iron Range. Southwest winds increase Sunday with gusts to 25 mph. Sunday will be another day to watch for near- critical fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy/HA AVIATION...HA MARINE...HA FIRE WEATHER...NLy/HA