938 FXUS64 KEWX 060006 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 706 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -There is higher confidence that pockets of heavy rainfall will lead to isolated flooding through tonight. A Flood Watch has been issued for Burnet County, the I-35 corridor from Bexar County northward, and the Coastal Plains. - Rain chances continue Saturday, but any storms tonight will impact how activity develops during the day. - Warmer temperatures return next week, with some low rain chances mainly along and east of I-35 early in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The remnants of the decayed storm system that moved across the Rio Grande early this morning is seen on radar over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains with scattered showers and thunderstorms east of this feature at the time of this writing. High PWATS clocking in at over 2 inches are forecast today which is over the 90th percentile climatologically for this time of year. Scattered storms will be efficient rain-makers with high rain rates which will likely lead to isolated pockets of flooding. Any training of storms will also contribute to flooding as some soils are already saturated across the area. Some of the stronger storms could also produce gusty wind around 40 mph. Latest guidance has been consistent in localized amounts of 6-8 inches over some portion of the area which has promoted the issuance of a Flood Watch through late tonight. This includes Burnet County, the I-35 corridor from Bexar County north and much of the Coastal Plains. There is lesser confidence for Bexar County, though recent flooding this morning across the county would mean any additional storms that move over the area would quickly produce flooding. Further west there could be some isolated development late this afternoon, but we will also have to watch for storm development again across portions of West Texas and Mexico late this afternoon which could send another complex of storms across the Rio Grande tonight, though models widely vary on this solution. What happens today and tonight will play into how things develop for tomorrow. An upper low will be just northwest of the area Saturday afternoon, then lifts northeast out of Texas Saturday night. Most activity on Saturday should be north of the area where greater lift is located, but with above normal moisture still in place chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The upper low which contributed to our wet short-term forecast lifts northeast into the Central Plains on Sunday. Low rain chances continue Sunday afternoon, mainly along and east of I-35 though with only isolated coverage, most will remain dry. Overcast skies Sunday morning will begin to clear as far east as the Hill Country Sunday with temperatures rising a few degrees from previous days. Highs will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the triple digits for a good chunk of South Central Texas. With the subtropical high over the area next week, drier and warmer conditions make a return. Any rain chances during this time will mostly be limited to the seabreeze with no other notable strong forcing mechanisms. Temperatures warm slightly next week with heat indices hovering between the mid 90s to low 100s depending on the location. Sunday and beyond, South Central Texas remains in a period of minor to moderate heat risk so practicing heat safety measures is recommended. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 With active weather over the area, the TAF plans were not adjusted much off the midday thinking. Convective activity looks to be peaking soon and should wind down in the the late evening. Will end the concerns for thunder by 04Z with no expected prevailing weather to be concerned about after midnight save for a few pockets of fog. IFR CIGs over I-35 seem reasonable given recent trends and the new rounds of rain to soak the soils and saturate low levels. Slightly more stable weather is expected for Saturday afternoon, but a PROB30 inherited still looks reasonable given the PWat values that will probably not lower too quickly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 87 74 90 / 80 40 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 87 75 89 / 70 40 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 87 73 89 / 70 30 30 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 72 88 / 80 40 50 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 91 75 94 / 50 20 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 73 89 / 80 40 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 71 87 73 89 / 50 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 87 74 89 / 60 40 40 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 86 75 88 / 70 50 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 75 89 / 60 20 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 88 75 90 / 50 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ172-173-191>194- 205>209-221>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...18