290 FXUS63 KFGF 051731 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and storms are forecast across eastern North Dakota, Red River Valley, into west-central Minnesota. While severe is not anticipated, storms may produce small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph. - More widespread chances for showers and storms Sunday night, as well as mid to late next week. Some storms could be severe. - Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, and mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Getting a few more cumulus towers showing up on satellite, mostly south of the Highway 2 corridor. Showers and weak thunderstorms that will move through Fargo and southeastern ND shortly are expected to bring only a bit of light rain and perhaps an isolated lightning strike, but expecting a bit more intensity as the weak shortwaves coming around the southwest side of the upper trough move through. SPC meso page has ML CAPE getting up to 1500 J/kg in west central MN and some effective shear around 30 kts, so can't rule out some stronger cells as the afternoon goes on. UPDATE Issued at 744 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Early morning showers and weak storms in the James River Valley continue to push east toward southeast ND through mid morning. Confidence is not high in these storms surviving into the afternoon. With daytime heating, instability grows and convection is expected to begin around 2 PM allowing widely scattered showers and storms to develop. Relatively best chance (40%) for convection exists in eastern ND, Red River Valley, and west- central MN. As daytime heating wanes, convection is expected to cease, around 8 PM. While today's storms are not anticipated to be severe, a few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph. Localized half an inch of rainfall is also anticipated under storms. Looking ahead toward this weekend and next week, guidance continues to bring hot temperatures and increasing moisture into our region. This will introduce potential for heat-related impacts Sunday as well as Tuesday through at least Thursday, potentially longer. This also brings chance for severe storms Sunday night as well as Tuesday, Wednesday, and potentially into late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 ...Synopsis... Upper low still spinning over southern Manitoba, and will push further east into Ontario tonight, leaving near zonal flow over the Northern Plains with several weak embedded shortwaves. A stronger trailing shortwave tomorrow. By Saturday, upper ridging starts to move into the Plains and Upper Midwest, with south to southeasterly winds and better instability starting to return. On Sunday, the upper ridge moves east and southwesterly flow aloft sets up and continues into the upcoming week. Several shortwaves are likely to come out in this pretty active pattern. As of now the models are clustering around timing of one decent shortwave coming through Sunday night and Monday and another late Tuesday into Wednesday. Predictability is low, but it does look like a warm and relatively stormy period as we head into next week. ...Shower and thunderstorm chances tonight and tomorrow... Main front is across our southeastern counties, with another weak boundary from near Hallock to Valley City. Both boundaries have some cumulus developing along them, with the more southern boundary looking a bit more robust on satellite with some hints of icing at the tops. That area has better instability with over 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 30 kts of shear, so will have to keep and eye on development. Higher instability as well as better forcing further south into SD and there has already been some fairly strong convection in that area. Most of the CAMs have some consolidation into a thunderstorm complex, which then pushes east through northern SD into MN later tonight. Will have to keep an eye on the far southern tier of counties, in case parts of that convection move into ND and west central MN. Another shortwave will come through tomorrow, but again the amount of destabilization is uncertain and shear is pretty weak. For now just think we will be more garden variety showers and thunderstorms rather than severe potential. ...Severe potential this weekend into early next week... Instability will be increasing this weekend as we have temperatures climbing back into the 80s and even low 90s, with southeasterly winds bringing better moisture. Upper ridging Saturday should keep most of the activity well to our west, but by Sunday the ridge starts to move east and many ensemble members have a decent shortwave coming out Sunday night into Monday. Timing of all these shortwaves in the southwesterly flow is very uncertain, but CWASP is up into the 50s by 06Z Monday, so have at least some chances for severe. Another relatively higher period of CWASP values Tuesday night into Wednesday, but spread among the ensembles for CAPE is also very high, around 1000 J/kg differences between some members. Predictability too low to start any specific messaging at this point, but pattern definitely looks active. ...Heat over the weekend... With southerly winds ahead of the surface trough over the weekend, there is a 60 to 90 percent probability for temperatures on Sunday to climb above 90 degrees. Dew points are also on the rise, and although apparent T values are still below 100, the heat risk and WBGT values on on the rise. Will continue to monitor for the need for any heat messaging over the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions with mainly some scattered to broken mid and high clouds at all sites. Biggest question will be scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through. Some showers will impact the KFAR area in the next couple of hours, so have some VCSH and prevailing rain for a short period. Less certainty with showers and thunderstorms just starting to develop. Have prob30s during the afternoon and early evening indicating convection for all but KDVL as cells are mostly firing to the south of that airport. Most activity will be to the south and west of our TAF sites by 00Z. Winds that are light and variable should steady out of the southeast by tomorrow morning, staying mostly below 12 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...CJ