489 FXUS63 KFGF 051946 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 246 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers and storms are forecast across eastern North Dakota, Red River Valley, into west-central Minnesota. Northern storms are expected to not be severe, but there is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms south of the I-94/Highway 10 corridor. - More chances for showers and storms Sunday night, as well as mid to late next week. Some storms could be severe. - Potential for heat-related impacts Sunday, and mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...Synopsis... The main upper trough continues to swing through Ontario, but several weak vort maxes/shortwaves are still coming down the backside of it. One main vort is moving through the southern Red River Valley and another is headed towards the Devils Lake Basin. Discussion of thunderstorm risk this afternoon and evening continued in the next section below. Upper ridging moves quickly into the Plains and Upper Midwest tomorrow, then pushes towards the Great Lake by Sunday. Pretty amplified southwesterly flow aloft sets up Sunday and continues into the upcoming week. One lead shortwave starts to move through late Sunday into Monday. Timing of such minor shortwaves always uncertain, but ensemble members in pretty decent agreement on bringing another shortwave out sometime mid-week. Upper troughing moves out into the Northern Plains by the end of the week either phased or as a weak cut off low, keeping active pattern going with perhaps some slightly cooler temperatures. ...Marginal severe risk this afternoon and evening... Vort max over the southern Red River Valley will be the one to watch this afternoon, with ML CAPE up around 1000-1500 J/kg while the more northern weak shortwave just has around 500 J/kg to work with. Effective shear is also higher in west central MN, with around 30 kts vs 20 kts. Storms that have been going up in Wilkin/western Otter Tail counties have been pretty disorganized so far, but can't completely rule out a few cells getting high enough to produce some 1 inch hail or gusts up to 60 mph. WoFS run has the best chances for strong updraft helicities just to the southeast of our CWA during the next few hours, but with continued weak upper forcing and some instability to work with don't want to rule out development further northwest. ...Severe threat late Sunday into next week... With an extended period of southwesterly flow aloft, there should be plenty of time for moist, unstable air to build over the Northern Plains. A lot of variation in the ensemble members in exactly how much instability, but even the lower percentiles for CAPE at KDVL have over 1500 J/kg with the higher end of the ensemble approaching 4000 J/kg. With the pretty amplified flow on Sunday, best chances for severe will be for our northwestern counties before storms move off into Canada. After that system pulls off to the east, surface winds quickly return to the south ahead of the next system. By Wednesday, spread for the CAPE values narrows a bit, with most of the ensemble members showing over 1700 J/kg and many between 2000-3000 J/kg. for several days next week, severe chances will be above 15 percent, so will have to keep a close eye on the more active pattern. ...Heat Sunday and again later in the week... ECMWF EFI shows a strong signal for warmer than average temperatures for the entire seven day period, with particularly high values on Sunday and Wednesday. With southeasterly winds the dew points will be on the rise. Probabilistic heat risk is around 20 to 30 percent chance for major impacts (excessive heat warning criteria) Sunday in the Red River Valley, and even higher values in west central MN for Wednesday. Will have to keep a close eye on heat impacts as we head into the day 3-7 period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions with mainly some scattered to broken mid and high clouds at all sites. Biggest question will be scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through. Some showers will impact the KFAR area in the next couple of hours, so have some VCSH and prevailing rain for a short period. Less certainty with showers and thunderstorms just starting to develop. Have prob30s during the afternoon and early evening indicating convection for all but KDVL as cells are mostly firing to the south of that airport. Most activity will be to the south and west of our TAF sites by 00Z. Winds that are light and variable should steady out of the southeast by tomorrow morning, staying mostly below 12 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR