514 

FXUS65 KFGZ 042244

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

344 PM MST Thu Jun 4 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures, dry conditions, and light southwest 

to west winds are expected through Friday. Winds increase over the 

weekend and continue into next week with elevated fire weather 

conditions returning.



&&



.DISCUSSION....A weak upper low centered over Mexico will lift to 

the north through New Mexico and Texas on Friday. The return flow 

around the low continues to bring some moisture into eastern Arizona 

this afternoon. Some scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms 

will remain possible into the early evening, mainly towards the AZ/NM 

border. While we are not expecting any severe storms, there may be 

some stronger storms with lightning and gusty outflows. 



The rest of the region will continue to remain warm and dry with a 

few cloud developing as the mid level moisture remains elevated. 

Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal on Friday. 



For Friday.... the low lifts northward into NM/TX, ending the return 

flow and shifting the moisture off to our east, bringing an end to 

any shower activity across our forecast area. There remains an 

outside chance of a shower along the AZ/NM border. Overall, expect 

Friday to be warm and dry with westerly afternoon breezes.



The models remain keyed in on a deepening west coast trough, 

starting this weekend and continuing through much of next week. The 

position of the trough will determine what kind of weather we will 

receive but current indications are for stronger southwesterly winds 

and a return to near normal temperatures arriving on Saturday and 

hanging around through at least the middle of next week. As far as 

precipitation goes, chances look slim as the trough doesn't dig far 

enough south to bring in the necessary moisture. With conditions 

remaining dry and relative humidities dropping into the single 

digits across much of the region, adding in the increase in winds, 

and we near-critical to critical fire weather conditions will return 

over the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...Friday 05/00Z through Saturday 06/00Z...VFR conditions.

Winds VRB 5-10 kts before 18Z, then becoming SW-NW 5-15 kts with gusts

20-25 kts.





OUTLOOK...Saturday 06/00Z through Monday 08/00Z...VFR conditions with

W/SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 25-35 kts each day.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Warm and dry conditions 

persist on Friday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average 

and afternoon humidity below 15%. Expect west to northwest winds, 15 

to 25 mph. On Saturday, plan for continued low humidity below 15% 

and stronger southwest winds, 20 to 35 mph, resulting in widespread 

critical fire weather conditions. 



Sunday through Tuesday...Critical fire weather conditions are 

expected again on Sunday with afternoon humidity at or below 15% and 

southwest winds, 20 to 35 mph. Temperatures return to near average 

each day with humidity remaining critically low through Tuesday. 

Southwest winds remain enhanced, 20 to 30 mph, on Monday followed by 

stronger gusts, 25 to 35 mph, on Tuesday.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Meola

AVIATION...Humphreys

FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff