959 FXUS64 KFWD 050639 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will occur today through Sunday with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms. - Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A slow-moving upper low and increasing moisture content will contribute to active weather heading into the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the area today and Saturday. Rich Gulf moisture continues to arrive within southeasterly low- level flow ahead of an upper low presently centered over Chihuahua, Mexico. As this low steadily ejects northeastward during the next 36 hours, its attendant ascent will contribute to scattered convective activity across much of the region, with coverage maximized during peak heating due to aid from diurnal destabilization. The potential for severe weather is rather low both today and Saturday, but a few robust updrafts could certainly produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. The overall microburst potential will be mitigated by near/below normal temperatures and lower cloud bases, while hail potential will be reduced due to a single cell or multicellular storm mode with rotating updrafts being rather unlikely. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be of concern as PW values approach 2" at times, and this would be most likely with any cell training that may be able to occur. Even though convective coverage will be maximized during late afternoon and evening, the synoptic scale forcing present will allow for isolated convective activity to be sustained even during the overnight and early morning hours. This will especially be true on Saturday as the upper low center and strongest height falls move directly overhead. Those with outdoor events this weekend will certainly want to keep an eye on the radar and have an alternate plan available. Otherwise, the abundance of cloud cover through the short term forecast period will aid in holding high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s both today and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The slow-moving upper low will be centered over Northwest Texas heading into Sunday, and this will serve as one final opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon as the last vestiges of its ascent impinge on the CWA. Activity is largely expected to end Sunday evening as the upper trough axis fully vacates the area to the northeast. In its wake, stout subsidence and mid-level height rises will overspread the area heading into early next week, and this will lead to a warmup to more summerlike temperatures while bringing an end to mentionable rain chances. Highs are forecast to return to near/above normal on Monday, and will mostly be in the mid and upper 90s through the entirety of next week as a 590+ dam ridge builds overhead. This could also be our first bout of 100+ degree heat index values this summer, and so messaging will begin to pivot from thunderstorm hazards to heat hazards through the extended portion of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 MVFR cigs are beginning to fill in across D10 airports as of 06z, with a low deck likely to remain in place through mid-morning. Some IFR cig heights are possible throughout this time period as well, especially around and just after daybreak. By late morning, sufficient lift will allow for the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms which could begin affecting the airports as early as ~16z, but will become more likely through mid and late afternoon. Brief mentions of precip including VCTS will be included for all TAF sites, with convective coverage of about 30-50% expected through the peak heating hours. The bulk of the precip will end with loss of heating this evening, but isolated showery activity remains possible even into tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 72 86 72 / 30 10 40 50 Waco 86 71 85 71 / 30 20 50 50 Paris 83 70 83 71 / 50 20 50 30 Denton 87 71 86 71 / 20 10 30 50 McKinney 86 71 84 71 / 30 10 40 40 Dallas 88 72 88 73 / 30 10 40 50 Terrell 86 70 85 71 / 40 20 50 40 Corsicana 86 72 87 73 / 50 20 50 40 Temple 86 71 85 71 / 40 30 50 50 Mineral Wells 87 70 85 69 / 20 0 40 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley