730 FXUS64 KFWD 051913 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will occur today through Sunday with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms. - Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A warm and humid airmass continues across north Texas today. Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers around. This is mostly thanks to an upper- level trough located over northwest Mexico keeping the region in southwest flow aloft. Any breaks in the high-level cloud cover will allow additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. PWAT values are between 1.8 to 2.2 inches so any storms that develop could quickly produce locally heavy rainfall as they move northward. The upper-level trough should lift out of Mexico and into west Texas overnight. As this upper low approaches, lift will increase across north Texas and allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase during the night. The upper-level low should slowly move northward into Oklahoma through the day and provide substantial lift across north Texas. The dry slot looks to move into the Big Country tomorrow and allow widespread clouds to clear out from the Metroplex westward by late morning. The resultant heating in this area and effect of being close to the upper low should lead to increased chances for stronger storms to develop in the afternoon across the Big Country and northwest of the Metroplex through the evening. In addition to heavy rainfall, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The upper-level low will push northeastward to near Kansas City on Sunday. The trough axis should move from west to east across north Texas throughout the day. This should provide lift for another round of thunderstorms mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Chances for severe weather look low at this time, but storms could still produce locally heavy rainfall. The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Monday. In it's wake, models show that a subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through at least Wednesday. Rain chances look to dry up during this time, but much hotter conditions are anticipated. Models show 500 mb heights of 590 dam over east Texas with 850 mb temperatures around 20 deg C each day. This would translate to medium (40 to 60%) chances for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with dewpoints in the low 70s. This would lead to heat indices between 100-105 each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 On and off showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near all terminals in the Metroplex this afternoon before diminishing later this evening. MVFR ceilings with occasional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm should re-develop by 06Z. Some locations could see IFR conditions especially in heavier showers. Ceilings should start to improve after about 15Z tomorrow. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 85 72 88 / 80 70 60 70 Waco 71 84 72 87 / 90 50 50 40 Paris 70 81 70 84 / 60 80 70 90 Denton 70 84 70 88 / 80 70 70 70 McKinney 71 83 71 86 / 70 80 60 80 Dallas 72 86 72 89 / 80 70 60 70 Terrell 71 84 71 86 / 70 70 60 70 Corsicana 72 86 73 88 / 80 70 50 60 Temple 71 85 72 88 / 90 50 50 30 Mineral Wells 68 85 69 89 / 80 60 70 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kearney LONG TERM....Kearney AVIATION...Kearney