807 FXUS64 KFWD 060018 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 718 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persits overnight through Sunday with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day. Occasional lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms. - Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Only minor changes were made to the PoPs tonight and Saturday, due primarily to the challenges the HRRR, and for that matter, the NBM, appear to be having in locking in on the key periods of precipitation. Cosmetic changes this evening were driven by the current radar coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily in areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. Still most confident in seeing measurable rainfall across our Central TX zones, mainly west of I-35 overnight. Owing to the weak forcing aloft in association with the meandering upper low, uncertainties in the location and timing of the key convective areas will be substantial. In general, the pre-existing 50-80% PoPs from earlier today were retained, with the highest values depicted closer to the Red River during the afternoon hours. While widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, healthy precipitable water values across most of the region, coupled with the slow movement of cells, may promote some isolated 2-3" rainfall totals. This may be sufficient to create some localized flooding issues across North Central Texas on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A warm and humid airmass continues across north Texas today. Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers around. This is mostly thanks to an upper- level trough located over northwest Mexico keeping the region in southwest flow aloft. Any breaks in the high-level cloud cover will allow additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. PWAT values are between 1.8 to 2.2 inches so any storms that develop could quickly produce locally heavy rainfall as they move northward. The upper-level trough should lift out of Mexico and into west Texas overnight. As this upper low approaches, lift will increase across north Texas and allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase during the night. The upper-level low should slowly move northward into Oklahoma through the day and provide substantial lift across north Texas. The dry slot looks to move into the Big Country tomorrow and allow widespread clouds to clear out from the Metroplex westward by late morning. The resultant heating in this area and effect of being close to the upper low should lead to increased chances for stronger storms to develop in the afternoon across the Big Country and northwest of the Metroplex through the evening. In addition to heavy rainfall, these storms will have the potential to produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The upper-level low will push northeastward to near Kansas City on Sunday. The trough axis should move from west to east across north Texas throughout the day. This should provide lift for another round of thunderstorms mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor. Chances for severe weather look low at this time, but storms could still produce locally heavy rainfall. The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Monday. In it's wake, models show that a subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through at least Wednesday. Rain chances look to dry up during this time, but much hotter conditions are anticipated. Models show 500 mb heights of 590 dam over east Texas with 850 mb temperatures around 20 deg C each day. This would translate to medium (40 to 60%) chances for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with dewpoints in the low 70s. This would lead to heat indices between 100-105 each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A sluggish upper level low over West Texas, coupled with abundant Gulf moisture, will promote scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across North Texas overnight into Saturday morning. Across the D10 airspace, VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through at least 09z tonight, though patchy transitory shower activity may promote some brief MVFR conditions at times. After 09z, a renewed northward surge of stratus should impact Waco and the DFW TAF sites, creating a sustained period of MVFR cigs through 15z. At the same time, transient showers will affect the vicinities of these sites. Timing the onset of any substantial convection - particularly thunderstorms - remains elusive due to the challenges the short- term models are having in capturing the precipitation fields associated with the slow moving upper low. There is general confidence that the D10 TAF sites will experience thunderstorm activity at some point Saturday, and for now, have opted to include a TEMPO of TSRA in the 18z-22z period, if for no other reason than due to the potential contribution of afternoon heating through this time window. This timing will almost certainly need to be refined in subsequent forecasts. Apart from the storms, episodic shower activity will impact D10 and the Waco areas through the 18-06z period Saturday/Saturday evening. Ceilings should undergo some slow improvement from 15z onward Saturday, transitioning to VFR conditions at all TAF sites after 18z. Surface winds should remain fairly steady state tonight through Saturday, due to the persistent nature of the pressure field across the region. Southeast winds overnight, at speeds averaging 8-10 knots should veer slightly by Saturday morning, becoming southerly at speeds of 9-12 knots after 18z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 85 72 88 / 80 70 60 70 Waco 71 84 72 87 / 80 50 50 40 Paris 70 81 70 84 / 60 80 70 90 Denton 70 84 70 88 / 80 70 70 70 McKinney 71 83 71 86 / 70 80 60 80 Dallas 72 86 72 89 / 80 70 60 70 Terrell 71 84 71 86 / 70 70 60 70 Corsicana 72 86 73 88 / 80 70 50 60 Temple 71 85 72 88 / 90 50 50 30 Mineral Wells 68 85 69 89 / 70 60 70 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw