452 

FXUS65 KGJT 051825

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

1225 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight chance (15-30%) for afternoon showers and storms near 

  the Divide today and Saturday.

 

- Near record high temperatures for today and Saturday.



- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday and

  continue through Tuesday due to low humidity and gusty winds.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



Lingering moisture may result in isolated showers and storms near 

and along the Divide this afternoon and again tomorrow. These 

showers will have better chances of producing gusty winds than 

measurable precipitation. On Saturday, a deep low drops into the 

Pacific Northwest setting up a longwave trough along the West Coast 

with ridging over the Plains. This pattern puts the region under a 

strong southwesterly flow with gusty southwest winds for the next 

several days. Today and tomorrow highs will be near record

values, but the trough pushes the warmest temperatures east of 

us by Sunday. Highs cool about five degrees Sunday onward, but 

we will still be well above normal. With the hot, and extremely 

dry conditions, expect critical fire weather conditions daily 

for a good majority of the area from Saturday through at least 

mid next week. In general wind gusts for Saturday through Monday

will be 25-35 mph with some gusts upwards of 40 mph. On Tuesday

and Wednesday the winds are expected to increase with gusts 

generally 35-45 mph. As that trough approaches from the west 

moisture could advect into the area, which may result in showers

and storms. The timing and strength of the trough could still 

change so the details are not clear. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Some 

mid level cloud development is being observed near the high terrain, 

but most locations will see high clouds throughout the day. Gusty 

winds will be present this afternoon, with most terminals expected 

to stay within the 20-25kt range. Winds will resume terrain driven 

patterns overnight with lighter speeds. A chance (20-30%) for 

showers and storms exist around the San Juans this afternoon but 

opted to leave it out of the TAF as confidence remains low for it to 

reach the terminals.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1111 PM MDT MDT Thu Jun 4 2026



Critical fire weather develops on Saturday and continues through

Tuesday. In general wind gusts Saturday through Monday will be 25-35 

mph with some gusts upwards of 40 mph. On Tuesday and Wednesday the 

winds are expected to increase with gusts around 35-45 mph, and

perhaps upwards of 50 mph. The coverage of red flag will change

day to day for a few zones based on wind speed and RH increasing.

Moisture does increase on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system 

passes to our north. This could result in showers and storms, 

but it is too far out for details.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ200-202-

     203-207-290-292.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-

     203-205-207-290>293.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening 

     for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ486-487-

     490-491.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-

     490-491.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening 

     for UTZ486-487-490-491.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KJS

AVIATION...TGJT

FIRE WEATHER...TGJT