747 

FXUS65 KGJT 060651

AFDGJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO

1251 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday and

  continue at least through Wednesday due to low humidity and 

  gusty winds.



- High-end fire weather conditions are likely for portions of

  the region on Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



STAGNANT HOT, DRY, AND WINDY PATTERN



Hot, dry, and windy conditions settle in across the region on 

Saturday as an approaching trough from the PacNW stalls out, 

trapping our CWA under dry southwesterly flow. Afternoon highs 

will sit around 5-10 degrees above normal until the low budges.

This places valley highs in the 90's, mountain valleys in the 

upper 80's to lower 90's, and mountain passes in the 60's and 

70's. These hot temperatures pair with a rapidly tightening 

pressure gradient, bringing strong gusts region-wide. From 

Saturday through Monday, gusts are expected to be around 25-35 

mph for the majority of the region with some gusts upwards of 40

mph. As the trough dips further southwards towards us on 

Tuesday and Wednesday, gusts will jump up even further. Most 

locations will see 35-40 mph gusts with many areas expected to 

hit 50 mph. Beyond Wednesday, the low begins to break down, but 

ensembles maintain dry flow over us, meaning there is little 

potential for a notable pattern shift later next week aside from

maybe some slightly cooler temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026



Gusts have calmed around the region and winds have become light

and terrain driven. Gusts of 20-30kts are expected tomorrow 

afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 956 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026



Our CWA is looking at a long stretch of critical fire weather 

beginning Saturday and likely persisting at least through 

Thursday. This is being prompted by strong winds and dry surface

conditions underneath stagnant southwesterly flow. From 

Saturday through Monday, gusts will generally be 25-35 mph with 

gusts up to 40 mph possible and relative humidities will be near

or in the single digits. With this, most fire zones that have 

critical fuels have been placed under Red Flag Warnings or Fire 

Weather Watches. The more concerning fire weather day comes on 

Tuesday though. A tightening pressure gradient across the CWA 

prompts an increase in winds without any relief to relative 

humidity. The majority of the region will see gusts of at least 

35 mph. However, we are keeping a close eye on the lower Yampa 

River Basin, Uinta Basin, Utah Grand Flat, and Four Corners 

region where winds are forecasted to reach as high as 50 mph

coinciding with the maintained single digit relative 

humidities. Over multiple forecast runs, these winds have been 

relatively consistent, leading to increasing confidence in the 

high-end nature of Tuesday's fire weather potential. Red Flag 

conditions should persist for portions of the region on 

Wednesday and likely Thursday as well.



&&



.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for 

     COZ200-202-203-207-290-292.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for COZ200-202-

     203-205-207-290>293.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening 

     for COZ200-202-203-205-207-290>293.

UT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for 

     UTZ486-487-490-491.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ486-487-

     490-491.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening 

     for UTZ486-487-490-491.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BW

AVIATION...TGJT

FIRE WEATHER...BW