409 FXUS63 KGLD 042116 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 316 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorm possible in northeast CO this afternoon. Low chance (less than 20%) for severe weather. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday in northwest Kansas. A cold front will be the focus for thunderstorm development by mid afternoon with a severe storm or two capable of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. - Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1150 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 In the near term, shortwave trough currently moving through the area will lift out to the northeast by 12-14z. A few lingering shower or isolated thunderstorms will be possible through that time in eastern parts of the area, then ending. For the rest of today, will transition to a weak northwest flow aloft around a ridge centered over the Four Corners and on the southern fringe of the stronger zonal flow over the Dakotas. Hard to find any embedded shortwaves with the ridge nudging in from the west. At the surface, a stationary front will be located from northeast Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle. Latest CAMs show little convective activity today, with only very isolated cells in northeast Colorado between 21-02z tied to surface heating and near the front. Instability in Colorado will be weak, less than 500 j/kg, except right along the Kansas border where it increases to 1000-1500 j/kg. Deep layer shear will be around 35 kts. If one of the isolated cells manages to get that far east, it could potentially tap into the better instability. However, the CAMs suggest that is highly unlikely and the probability of severe weather is low (less than 20%). Storms should quickly dissipate after 02z with the loss of surface heating. Models show the front moving southward overnight and into Friday morning, and by 21z located roughly along a Norton to Colby to Tribune line in northwest Kansas, or perhaps slightly south of that line as shown by the RRFS. Convective initiation should occur along the front between 21-23z with strong convergence but little in the way of synoptic scale lift with upper ridging forecast. Instability will be maximized on the cool side of the front with up to 2000-2500 j/kg forecast. Deep layer shear in the expected frontal position will be 20-25 kts. While there will be some severe risk given the magnitude of the instability, the lack of forcing other than the front itself and the weak shear suggest it will be fairly limited. That being said, a severe storm or two capable of large hail up to half dollar size, damaging winds (favorable DCAPE around 1500-2000 j/kg), and perhaps a brief spin up near the front are the expected hazards. CAMs show the storms either dissipating or moving out to the east fairly early in the evening, between 02-03z, with the rest of the night quiet. A ridge axis builds into the Northern Plains on Saturday. There is one wrinkle, however, as the models show a compact disturbance moving from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles in the morning into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas by the evening. The current track would keep precipitation chances well to the south and east of the area and expecting dry conditions locally. Temperatures will begin to heat up under the ridge with highs in the low to mid 90s. Breezy southeast surface winds will continue to advect dew points in the 40s and 50s into the area, so not expecting any fire weather concerns with relative humidity forecast to be 20-30%. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 314 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Skies will be mostly clear until the evening when we see a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) generally range around 30% for the northern CWA. Severe storms are possible as there are around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE present over the CWA, but shear will be the limiting factor for storms. Forecast soundings indicate around 20 knots of shear. Should storms develop, small hail and strong winds associated with collapsing thunderstorms are the primary hazards. Storm chances continue Sunday evening through Monday for the area with PoPs from 20-40%, increasing from north to south. The environment appears more supportive of severe storm development. Our region is in a strong southwest upper-level flow with a weak jet streak around 70 knots over the region. The environment is still moderately unstable with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, but again, shear is the limiting factor with model soundings showing 20-40 knots of shear. Hazards are similar to Sunday with small hail and strong winds as the primary concerns, but some stronger storms could produce large hail. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, but if the region sees widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increased cloud cover could lower temperatures and decrease storm chances for Monday. The remainder of the extended forecast period is shaping up to be hot, windy, and dry with above average temperatures, strong winds and low relative humidity (RH) values forecast. Tuesday through Thursday, high temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s with wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. RH values are expected to fall in the low teens to 20s, decreasing from east to west. RH values may trend lower than currently forecast due to persistent southwest upper-level flow and south-southwest winds promoting downslope warming and mixing. This could increase temperatures and winds as well. These conditions will support critical fire weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon hours when RH values are the lowest. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values of 60 to 100+ are forecast, with the highest being across the western CWA. Any fires that develop may spread rapidly and become difficult to control. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Ongoing (as of 16Z) MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to lift and scatter to VFR early this afternoon, by ~18-20Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail thereafter, through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period. Light (6-12 knot) ESE to S winds are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. The development of a modest southwesterly low- level jet (~1000 to 2000 ft AGL) may lead to a period of LLWS at either/both terminals late this evening and overnight, mainly between 04-10Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...JRM