973 FXUS63 KGLD 052026 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 226 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A severe storm is possible this afternoon, mainly north of I-70 and east of Highway 83 between 4-9 pm CDT. Large hail and locally damaging wind are the primary hazards, should storms develop. - Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Through Tonight: A modest SW-to-NE oriented shear axis (~250-300 mb level) and an accompanying low-level reflection (SW-to-NE oriented surface to 850 mb trough) will very slowly progress east across northwest KS and southwest NE this afternoon, when/where weak low-level convergence may serve as a focus for scattered convective development during the mid-late afternoon. Per 19Z surface observations, the aforementioned surface trough was located along/near a line extending NE-NNE from Leoti- Oakley-Oberlin. Unimpeded sunshine will further destabilize the moderately unstable airmass (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE at 19Z) already in place over northwest KS this afternoon, especially in ENE portions of the Goodland CWA (Hill City, Norton, Oberlin) where moisture pooling in vicinity of the low-level convergence zone will lead to strong destabilization (3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) at peak heating. 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data indicates a pristine elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates 8.5-9 C/km) and a significant amount of convective inhibition (75-150 J/kg MLCIN) over the Goodland CWA.. as evidenced by clear skies on visible satellite. As of 1930Z, scattered diurnal Cu has recently developed over northern portions of Norton County, where surface dewpoints were in the mid-upper 60's and the temperature was ~93F. High-res guidance suggests that a fair amount of convective inhibition (~50-150 J/kg of MLCIN) will persist through peak heating. This appears to be, in part, a function of persistent low ceilings/stratus in southwest NE this morning, where diurnal heating was delayed and temperatures at 1930Z were 10-15F cooler than adjacent KS border counties. With the above in mind, it appears that weak forcing and a persistent cap / convective inhibition will act as a barrier to appreciable convective development this aft-eve. Current and recent (12-18Z) runs of the HRRR indicate little in the way of convective development in the Goodland CWA this aft- eve. Forecast soundings continue to indicate inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, seasonably strong DCAPE, vertical wind profiles characterized by weak (~10-15 knot) flow in the lowest 15,000 to 20,000 ft AGL and weak deep-layer shear. A conditional threat for severe weather will, nevertheless, exist across portions of the area, mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 83 (Norton/Graham) where strong instability would support a potential for large hail with any deep convection (organized or not). Further south.. in Greeley, Wichita, Logan and Gove counties, where extreme DCAPE (~1800 J/kg) is present.. brief/isolated severe wind gusts are possible with any high- based convection (i.e. storms, showers, virga). Sat-Sat night: Ample low-level moisture will likely foster marginal to moderate diurnal destabilization (500-1000 J/kg mlcape) over portions of the area on Sat, though.. synoptic subsidence associated with an amplifying upper level ridge over the Central-Northern Plains will tend to suppress convective development. While southeasterly low-level flow could assist in the development of diurnal convection on the Palmer Divide during the mid-late afternoon, light/variable mid-level flow would do little to steer development east toward the Goodland CWA. Expect highs similar-to, albeit a few degrees warmer than, today, ~92-97F. Sun-Sun night: A similar synoptic pattern will foster sensible weather conditions similar to Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 314 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Sunday, our county warning area (CWA) will remain in a broad southwest upper-level flow aloft downstream of a low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s. Skies will be mostly clear until the evening when we see a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) generally range around 30% for the northern CWA. Severe storms are possible as there are around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE present over the CWA, but shear will be the limiting factor for storms. Forecast soundings indicate around 20 knots of shear. Should storms develop, small hail and strong winds associated with collapsing thunderstorms are the primary hazards. Storm chances continue Sunday evening through Monday for the area with PoPs from 20-40%, increasing from north to south. The environment appears more supportive of severe storm development. Our region is in a strong southwest upper-level flow with a weak jet streak around 70 knots over the region. The environment is still moderately unstable with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE, but again, shear is the limiting factor with model soundings showing 20-40 knots of shear. Hazards are similar to Sunday with small hail and strong winds as the primary concerns, but some stronger storms could produce large hail. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s, but if the region sees widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increased cloud cover could lower temperatures and decrease storm chances for Monday. The remainder of the extended forecast period is shaping up to be hot, windy, and dry with above average temperatures, strong winds and low relative humidity (RH) values forecast. Tuesday through Thursday, high temperatures are forecast in the 90s to 100s with wind gusts from 25-40 mph possible. RH values are expected to fall in the low teens to 20s, decreasing from east to west. RH values may trend lower than currently forecast due to persistent southwest upper-level flow and south-southwest winds promoting downslope warming and mixing. This could increase temperatures and winds as well. These conditions will support critical fire weather conditions Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in the afternoon hours when RH values are the lowest. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values of 60 to 100+ are forecast, with the highest being across the western CWA. Any fires that develop may spread rapidly and become difficult to control. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 905 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026 GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Ongoing MVFR ceilings along the Nebraska/Kansas border at 15Z are ever-so-slowly drifting southward into Cheyenne County, KS. Recent high-res model guidance suggests that the aforementioned ceilings will scatter-out and/or lift to VFR prior to reaching the Goodland terminal during the late morning to early afternoon. NW to NNW winds at 12-15 knots this morning will shift to the NNE and decrease to 8-12 knots during the early afternoon. Light winds will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period, veering to the east during the late aft-early eve and south tonight-Sat morning. MCK: Ongoing (as of 15Z) LIFR to IFR ceilings are expected to scatter-out and/or lift to VFR by early afternoon. VFR conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Any showers/storms that develop this afternoon are expected to be confined well S and E (25+ miles) of the McCook terminal. Light (~6-12 knot) E to NNE winds are expected throughout the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Rhoades AVIATION...Vincent