025 FXPQ50 PGUM 050742 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 542 PM ChST Fri Jun 5 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Visible satellite imagery depicts mostly sunny skies and low-end isolated showers across the Marianas. Buoy and altimetry data show a northeasterly swell producing combined seas of 3 to 4 feet. There is a moderate risk of rip currents along north- and east-facing reefs. && .Discussion... A dry trade-wind regime continues as a broad area of PWAT values from 1.30 to 1.50 inches passes through the region as indicated by CIMSS MIMIC. Satellite imagery depicts a weak signature of island-effect along leeward portions of the islands, mainly producing lines of clouds advecting offshore to the west. There is an increase of cumulus cloud development along the axis of all islands, but showers are expected to remain isolated in coverage through tonight as the drier airmass persists. POPs of 20 percent are possible throughout the forecast period as a subtropical ridge protrudes from the northeast towards the Marianas. Winds will hover between 10 to 15 mph during the day, dropping to around 10 mph in the evening as daytime heating subsides. There is a chance of island-effect showers tomorrow as the weather pattern remains consistent, but showers are expected to remain isolated in coverage. && .Marine... Distant weather patterns are producing a northeasterly swell for the region. Buoy and altimetry data depict combined seas of 3 to 4 feet across all coastal waters. North- and east-facing reefs can expect surf from 3 to 5 feet for the next several days, so there is a moderate risk of rip currents. Benign sea conditions will remain for the Marianas through the forecast period. && .Eastern Micronesia... Pohnpei looks to have the "best" rainfall potential over the next several days, as they'll be closest to the tail end of the NET (Near- Equatorial Trough), with a 40 percent potential of rainfall during the day in this light wind regime (daytime heating/land breeze convergence) and 30 percent at night. For Kosrae and Majuro, it's much the same picture (mainly Kosrae as Majuro is pretty small/flat, making differential heating less of a factor), so opted for low-end scattered showers during the day and isolated at night. For the mariners, these light winds and lack of any northerly swell makes for good fishing conditions, with light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet expected through the middle of next week. && .Western Micronesia... The Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) with an embedded circulation remains the dominant feature of the region. The circulation is located to the southeast of Yap Proper. High-end scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the western flanks. These showers are expected to move westward bringing showers to Yap Proper and Palau tonight through the weekend. A second wave of showers is located over the outer islands of Yap. This wave of showers is estimated to arrive over Palau and Yap near the beginning of next week. Overall, a wet week is expected. On the other hand, the trades are converging near Chuuk which are producing scattered showers. This convergence is expected to remain through the beginning of next week. Then a drier pattern may start to develop. Overall, a wet first half of the forecast, then a drier pattern may set up for the latter half. Combined seas are 3 to 5 feet through out the regions. Winds are expected to be light to gentle. Overall, fairly benign seas are expected through the middle of next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Mesa East Micronesia: Doll West Micronesia: Bowsher