871 FXUS61 KGYX 051847 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 247 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer for early next week, before a more pronounced warm up through the rest of the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday with warmer temperatures retreating south of the forecast area. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for New Hampshire and far western Maine, with a Slight Risk across southern New Hampshire. Strong to severe storms may contain gusty winds and small hail. 2. A slow moving front crosses New England on Sunday, bringing showers and a relatively cooler airmass. 3. After a brief and relative cool down early next week, temperatures rebound again by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Other than isolated to scattered showers late this afternoon into early evening towards central Maine, it remains dry through tonight. Winds go calm, with temperatures retreating to the low to mid 50s. A stationary front to the north will help channel moisture into northern New England through Saturday. An embedded shortwave atop the ridge should provide widespread cloud cover and the chance for light showers in the morning before pushing east. How quickly these clouds exit east or start to see sunny breaks will be critical for the chance of afternoon thunderstorms and their intensity. CAM ensembles in the form of the HREF and REFS reflect this with a wide IQR spread of 500-700 j/kg of surface CAPE through the afternoon. This does provide some clarity however that the chance for stronger storms is focused west of roughly a Portland to Rangeley line. Thunder chances remain areawide through the afternoon, but a general weakening trend should be observed east of this line. These thunderstorms will be forced by a pre-frontal trough entering New England in the afternoon. The environment will be conducive for thunderstorms, with isolated strong to severe storms possible. There should be ample shear through the column to support organized storm structure, with a push of water vapor transport arriving from the Great Lakes. Instability remains the more uncertain aspect at this time, but as mentioned above, should be focused on NH and far western ME. Gusty winds are expected to be the main threat within stronger storms, but small hail could also accompany these when in discrete single cell modes. A transition to linear segments is possible as the afternoon goes on, boosting wind risk. Coverage of storms decreases in the evening, with the severe threat diminishing. Some showers continue overnight, mainly north of the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure drifts southward on Tuesday and Wednesday while a ridge pumps into the Northeast US and Eastern Canada. This brings with it a warming trend into midweek, with widespread highs in the mid 80s by Tuesday, and mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday. The greatest height anomalies associated with the ridge look poised to set up to the northwest of New England through Quebec and Ontario. This brings the warmest anomalies into northern areas for at least a couple days next week. It also presents the opportunity for a backdoor cold front by late week, but based on the orientation of the ridge it looks more likely that this would be deflected to the south and east. Should this pattern progression come to fruition, an extended period of summertime heat would likely last into at least late week. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The cold front only slowly progresses through northern New England on Sunday as low pressure tracks through southern Quebec. This brings more rounds of showers into the area on Sunday. Overall since yesterday, the front has trended to look less robust, and with less precip overall. Rounds of showers are still likely, but the upper level low doesn't look to dig as deep as models were suggesting yesterday, resulting in more intermittent showers. The front then clears to the south by late Sunday evening. Along with the less robust front, the cool airmass behind the front doesn't look to make as much progress as earlier modeling suggested. This still results in a relatively cooler airmass behind the front on Monday as high pressure moves through, but temps still warm into the low 70s across the north, to near 80 through southern New Hampshire. And from these readings, temps only warm going into midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR. There will be some SHRA developing mid to late afternoon towards WVL/AUG, but these push east through the evening. Can't rule out some valley fog in this region later tonight, but not confident enough to put in the AUG TAF. VFR Sat morning, with clouds thickening and lowering. Some MVFR cigs are possible in the early afternoon with SHRA. Outlook: Saturday: MVFR cigs possible through the mountains as SHRA increases in coverage. TS becomes more likely after 18z, for much of NH and far western ME through 00z. Sunday: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of MVFR to IFR possible. Sunday night - Thursday: Mainly VFR prevails, but some nighttime valley fog will be possible at HIE and LEB each night. && .MARINE... Below SCA conditions expected tonight through Saturday. There will be the chance for afternoon thunderstorms reaching the southern ME and NH coast, with gusty winds or small hail possible near shore. The threat for thunder decreases up the ME coast. Some marginal SCA conditions are possible ahead of a cold front in southerly flow into Sunday, and are then possible again in northerly flow behind the front Sunday night into Monday. Broad high pressure builds across the waters on Monday, and settles to the south of New England through midweek with mainly fair conditions expected to prevail. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clair/Cornwell