465 FXUS64 KHGX 060548 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected today. - High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding. - Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast starting today through at least the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 An weakly closed upper level low is currently transiting northeast through Texas and will open again moving into the Great Plains and that should help reduce the morning convection. However, we still have one more day where we'll have scattered to numerous showers and storms during the day. High resolution short term models are still showing early convection during the morning hours, then transitioning into the more diurnally driven seabreeze/outflow boundary type storms in the afternoon. Plenty of moisture continues to enter the area from the gulf and expecting a similar setup to yesterday where high PW values along with training storms will bring another heavy rainfall threat today. Much of the area has seen widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with localized in excess of 4 inches. Soils are getting fairly saturated and in urban areas already hit will have much of the rain falling as runoff. The hardest hit areas basically have flash flood guidance of less than an inch. Storms will be efficient rainmakers with rainfall rates of 1-3+ inches easily. This will cause street flooding in poor drainage areas, rises in local streams/bayous and some isolated flash flooding. A few points are in action stage so it wouldn't take too much more to push into minor stage. Some relief from the stormy weather will come Sunday. Upper level ridging will begin to build in the western part of the continental US. Unfortunately the trade off on that will be with less cloud cover and rain will have high temperatures build from the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. Heat index values will be reaching 105 to 108 by mid week. Another concern for this weekend will be the high risk of rip currents on gulf facing shores. Local beaches have had red flags flying today and will likely continue for the next few days as onshore flow will continue to pile water into the coastal areas. Please heed safety advice if going to the beach this weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity is in the process of ending for the evening. Still have a few showers near LBX, but even these should dissipate before sunset. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will continue through the evening, but with light winds and moist grounds, I am expected MVFR conditions to begin to emerge around 4-6z with widespread MVFR conditions beginning around 9-11z with CIGs around 1000ft. Cannot out rule some periods of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700-800ft. These clouds will begin to scatter out through the late morning with VFR conditions returning by 17-19z. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow. The first round of storms may develop as early as sunrise, and then additional pop-up thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and into the evening (similar to today). Exact locations of the thunderstorms are unknown at this time, so have predominately gone with VCSH with PROB30 of TS for most terminals. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the rest of this week and much of next week. Winds will remain southeasterly at around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise caution flags will likely be needed for parts of Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 73 85 74 / 60 50 70 20 Houston (IAH) 86 75 87 76 / 80 20 80 20 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 82 / 20 20 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BL AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...BL