757 FXUS64 KHGX 061016 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected today. - High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding. - Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast starting today through at least the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 WPC has upgraded portions of Southeast Texas, including the Houston metro area, to a slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) for today. This is due to a combination of Friday's rainfall leaving areas generally along the I-10 corridor fairly saturated and the potential for localized rainfall amounts exceeding 3-4" today. Any rainfall that occurs along or near the I-10 corridor would see a quick transition to runoff, which means street flooding could occur quicker than usual. Members of the 00Z HREF continue to indicate the potential for a localized rainfall maxima exceeding 4" today, but the exact location of where this occurs remains uncertain. The highest probability of occurrence would be near or south of I-10. The HREF has performed fairly well over the past couple of days with highlighting the potential and general location for these localized higher rainfall amounts. With PW values above 2" streaming in as an upper level low further induces lift, rainfall rates will peak in the 3-4" per hour range once again. This could lead to quick bursts of 1-3+" rainfall amounts depending on where the heavy rain sets up. If this occurs around the Houston metro area again, then we would see rises along local bayous/streams in addition to street flooding potential. We'll continue to monitor trends through the morning and into the afternoon, so be sure to remain weather aware and have multiple ways to receive alerts. As far as rivers go, we have our eyes on the San Bernard and the Lavaca/Navidad River basins for rises based on upstream rainfall that has already fallen and today's anticipated rainfall. As of right now, we're only looking at isolated rises into action stage. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/). Batiste && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 An weakly closed upper level low is currently transiting northeast through Texas and will open again moving into the Great Plains and that should help reduce the morning convection. However, we still have one more day where we'll have scattered to numerous showers and storms during the day. High resolution short term models are still showing early convection during the morning hours, then transitioning into the more diurnally driven seabreeze/outflow boundary type storms in the afternoon. Plenty of moisture continues to enter the area from the gulf and expecting a similar setup to yesterday where high PW values along with training storms will bring another heavy rainfall threat today. Much of the area has seen widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with localized in excess of 4 inches. Soils are getting fairly saturated and in urban areas already hit will have much of the rain falling as runoff. The hardest hit areas basically have flash flood guidance of less than an inch. Storms will be efficient rainmakers with rainfall rates of 1-3+ inches easily. This will cause street flooding in poor drainage areas, rises in local streams/bayous and some isolated flash flooding. A few points are in action stage so it wouldn't take too much more to push into minor stage. Some relief from the stormy weather will come Sunday. Upper level ridging will begin to build in the western part of the continental US. Unfortunately the trade off on that will be with less cloud cover and rain will have high temperatures build from the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. Heat index values will be reaching 105 to 108 by mid week. Another concern for this weekend will be the high risk of rip currents on gulf facing shores. Local beaches have had red flags flying today and will likely continue for the next few days as onshore flow will continue to pile water into the coastal areas. Please heed safety advice if going to the beach this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 A mixed bag of ceilings early this morning ranging from LIFR to VFR. Ceilings are expected to remain at or below MVFR through the early to mid-morning hours before returning to VFR by the late morning/early afternoon. Main aviation impact for the day beyond ceilings will be timing of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest high-resolution model guidance is pointing towards activity along the coast gradually increasing in coverage later this morning, then coverage vastly expanding going into the late morning and early afternoon. Decreased ceilings/visibilities expected in heavy downpours. The timing of the TEMPOs is the highest confidence window for showers/storms, but it's entirely possible for these conditions to occur a couple of hours before or after this timeframe. Shower/storm coverage decreases this evening, but so do ceilings as widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are anticipated once again going into Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop again beginning Sunday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2026 Persistent onshore flow continues for the coastal waters for the rest of this week and much of next week. Winds will remain southeasterly at around 10 to 15 knots but will increase to 15 to 20 knots late tonight into early tomorrow. Small craft exercise caution flags will likely be needed for parts of Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 75 87 76 / 60 20 30 10 Houston (IAH) 87 77 89 78 / 80 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 82 / 50 20 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BL AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...BL