271 FXUS64 KHUN 051905 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 205 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1048 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - Medium to high chances (40-80%) of showers and thunderstorms return Sunday through early next week. - A more summerlike pattern sets up by midweek, with low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms during the day then tapering out in the evening. - High temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 No major changes were needed to the forecast, as things remain on track. Current temperatures for most locations across the Tennessee Valley are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs are still forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s east of I-65 and in the mid to upper 80s west of I-65 (upper 80s especially in the Muscle Shoals area). Although not sweltering outside, it is still a good idea to make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans this afternoon! Previous Discussion: No significant weather impacts are forecast today and tonight. Upper level ridging over the Southeast as well as surface high pressure over the Appalachians will keep rain out of the forecast. Even with some mid and upper level clouds streaming overhead this afternoon, highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s east of I-65 and the mid to upper 80s west of I-65. It won't be super muggy outside, but dew points in the lower 60s are expected. Light winds (less than 10 mph) are also anticipated today, becoming near calm this evening and overnight. Even with these forecast winds, thinking that the upper level clouds and larger dew point depressions will hinder most fog development tonight. Although, there may still be instances of patchy fog near bodies of water. Lastly, low temperatures later tonight will be a bit warmer than we've seen the past couple of days, in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 The aforementioned upper ridge will weaken on Saturday as an upper shortwave traverses the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. From late Saturday into Sunday, another, more amplified shortwave over the southern Plains then swings into the Midwest through the day on Sunday. Surface high pressure will also gradually weaken through the weekend, especially as a surface front slides over the Ohio Valley towards the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Overall, little to no rain is forecast on Saturday until very late into early Sunday morning. Chances then increase to be medium to high (40-80%) by Sunday afternoon. Even with models showing instability ranging between 1000-1500 J/kg or so during the day, bulk shear values generally range between 15-20 knots (perhaps increasing to around 25 knots in some spots by the late afternoon). Furthermore, model hodographs don't look too impressive. Therefore, strong to severe storms are not anticipated. On the other hand, model PWATs are fairly high, ranging between 1.9-2.1 inches on Sunday. These values are well above the 90th percentile (~1.7 inches), so showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy downpours and minor flooding will therefore be concerns, which correlates to WPC's Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for a portion of our area on Sunday. In addition to heavy rainfall/flooding, lightning will also be a threat with any storms on Sunday. Stay weather aware (especially if you have any outdoor activities) and remember, when thunder roars, go indoors! See a flash, dash inside! If you encounter flooded roads, turn around, don't drown! Lastly, high temperatures will be warm on Saturday, with values in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. As rain chances increase on Sunday, highs will be a bit cooler, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. Lows are expected to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s by Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 915 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 High pressure will shift east of the Tennessee Valley next week as an unsettled pattern returns. Deep southwesterly flow will really begin to advect in a warm, moist air mass on the western edge of the ridge. This is evidenced by dewpoints returning to the upper 60s to lower 70s by Sunday. Diurnally driven convection will develop each day (40-80% chance), with the greatest coverage occurring during the afternoon and evening hours. Convection on Monday and Tuesday will also be aided by a passing shortwave trough over the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys that will clip our area. Given the moist environment, all of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours. Otherwise, warm/muggy conditions which fairly typical for early June as daytime highs reach the mid to upper 80s each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions prevail. South to southwesterly winds of 5-10 kts intermittently gusting 15-18 kts will continue through 23z-00z this evening. Rounds of SCT-BKN mid and high cloud cover will pass across the terminals with cumulus clouds developing this afternoon expected to remain FEW in coverage at 4k-6k ft before dissipating this evening. BR/FG not anticipated at the terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...KG