946 FXUS64 KHUN 060848 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New NEAR TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 - High chances (70-90%) of showers and thunderstorms return Sunday and Monday. - A more summerlike pattern sets up by midweek, with low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms during the day then tapering out in the evening. - High temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. Heat index && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Current weather conditions across the TN Valley remain dominated by a deamplifying subtropical ridge (centered across the northern FL peninsula) and a surface high positioned off the coast of SC/GA. Aside from a few/thin cirrus clouds, mostly clear skies exist across the region and have worked in conjunction with calm- light SE winds to support efficient radiational cooling, and temps in most outlying areas will reach the lower 60s by sunrise. Patchy, locally dense fog has developed in the Lake Guntersville vicinity and upstream portions of the TN River Valley across Jackson County, but at this point the risk for fog development elsewhere appears rather low. Over the course of the day, a deep northern stream shortwave will advance inland along the coasts of Washington and British Columbia, resulting in rapid surface cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains and a sharpening trough in the lee of the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, a marine warm front demarcating dewpoints in the u50s-l60s (to its northeast) from dewpoints in the u60s-l70s (to its southwest) will advance inland along the central Gulf Coast, with rain and thunderstorms expected to be most concentrated near and south of this feature. Although a few showers may occur as far north as portions of northern MS/western TN, we expect conditions to remain dry across our CWFA. Even with an increasing coverage of high clouds throughout the day, temperatures will be rather warm with highs ranging from the l80s/east to u80s/west. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A return to a more active pattern will occur early next week as a trough of low pressure develops over Texas Saturday night into Sunday and moves across the Mid South and Ohio Valley on Monday, dragging a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity of the region. This feature will bring high (70-90%) chances of showers and thunderstorms (aided by diurnal heating) during the afternoon and evening hours. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s and PWATs in the 1.8" to 2.1" range, this activity will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and potentially a few instances of minor flooding should slow-moving convection train over the same area. Bulk shear values aren't too impressive pretty weak so would expect this activity to be somewhat disorganized and pulse-like in nature -- with perhaps a storms or two becoming locally strong and capable of producing gusty winds. Otherwise it will be very warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s and peak heat index values around 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 826 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A shortwave will continue its journey to round the Southeast's ridge on Tuesday, before shifting the ridge eastward thereafter. This will help keep low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Monday night through Tuesday. With the sfc high centered in the Mid- Atlantic, southerly winds will continue to advect in warm, moist air into the region through mid week. During this time, another ridge amplifies up from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes, but will be blocked on progressing eastward. This will provide us with an increase in temperatures (upper 80s to lower 90s) through the week. With the amount of moisture in place, there will be diurnally driven convection along with heat index values in the upper 90s. Yes, it's June, but these hot and humid conditions will create elevated Heat Risk values, so ensure you are staying cool and hydrated! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period with light winds out of the SE/SSE. A scattered Cu field around 4 kft will redevelop by late Saturday morning through the afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...AMP LONG TERM...JMS AVIATION...AMP