756 FXUS63 KICT 051127 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Chances for storms forecast for this weekend through Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours each day. - Hot and humid conditions possible next week along with low storm chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 TODAY AND TONIGHT... Early this morning, much of the forecast area remains quiet, but a complex of showers and storms remains just off of our doorstep across northeast Kansas producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding. This complex of storms is forecast to move northeastward into northern Missouri and southern Iowa later this morning keeping central and southern Kansas main dry during the morning hours. That being said, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas this morning, but impacts will be minimal. Later this afternoon, a combination of the high PWAT axis (with PWATs over 1.5 inches), a very subtle mid/upper trough lumbering across the central plains, and robust diurnal heating should be enough for isolated showers and storms across a large portion of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. While the NBM was very modest with rain chances this afternoon, short term guidance suggests we could see a similar setup to Thursday with handful of storms (across mainly south-central Kansas and the Flint Hills) possible. While shear is lacking with effective shear below 20 knots, 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE would support at least a few strong storms with gusty downburst winds and small hail possible. Also, during the afternoon and evening hours, scattered thunderstorms will develop along a subtle baroclinic zone across the Kansas/Nebraska border. Some of these storms could sneak their way towards I-70 during the evening and early nighttime hours. Effective shear around 25 to 30 knots along with MLCAPE between 3500-4000 J/kg should support organized convection. Before storm mode becomes messy, a powerful supercell or two is possible with very large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Most likely, this activity remains north of the forecast area, but there is a low chance portions of Russell, Lincoln, and Saline Counties could see a severe storm this evening into tonight. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK... For Saturday, a weak, closed mid/upper low will push northward out of the southern plains. Deep moisture will overspread the area, and a few showers are possible. Compared to today, much weaker lapse rates will significantly limit instability, and shear will be very weak, especially as the mid/upper trough moves overhead. Still, deep moisture and ample diurnal heating will probably be enough for a few weak isolated showers and storms smattered across the forecast area. The best chances will be across far southern and southeast Kansas. Additional chances for showers and storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning across portions of southern and southeast Kansas as mid- level WAA ramps up across the area. Mid-level lapse rates and shear appear to be fairly lackluster, so storm intensity is likely to be limited Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another round of diurnally driven convection is possible across the eastern third of Kansas Sunday afternoon supported by the mid/upper trough axis draped over this region along with higher PWATs well over 1.5 inches. Meanwhile, a trough slowly moving over the Rockies and into the northern High Plains will support scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may try to push into portions of central Kansas late Sunday night into Monday morning, but chances for this outcome remain low at this time. One last round of showers and storms is possible Monday afternoon and evening across much of Kansas as a shortwave trough nudges into the central plains. Given the high uncertainty in this time frame, details about possible storms on Monday continue to remain a bit fuzzy, but current guidance suggests the environment would support strong to marginally severe storms given forecast shear and instability. Low chances for showers and storms continue through much of next week, but again, the uncertainty in the forecast remains very high at this time. TEMPERATURE FORECAST... Temperature-wise, conditions will remain near average for today and through the weekend due in part to the aforementioned mid/upper troughs passing over the central plains through Sunday. However, much warmer conditions will be in store heading into next week promoted by increasing geopotential heights and warmer mid-level temperatures from a mid/upper ridge forecast to develop over the southern plains. Mid to long range guidance suggests afternoon highs in the mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s will be possible during the latter half of next week. With so much moisture remaining across the area, it's within the realm of possibility that portions of the forecast area could see multiple days with heat indices above 105 degrees next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A brief period of MVFR cigs continues across south-central and southeast Kansas this morning, but this should give way to VFR conditions area-wide by later this morning. Additionally, winds throughout the TAF period across the area will remain consistent out of the south at around 10-15 knots. Occasional gusts to around 25 knots will be possible, especially this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon during peak heating. Also, a low chance of a strong or severe exist along and north of I-70 this evening into tonight. That being said, the chances for any impacts to TAF sites remains low at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...JC