821 

FXUS63 KICT 060851

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

351 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chances for showers and storms to increase today and will 

  linger through Monday morning.



- Hot and very humid conditions increasingly likely mid-week 

  next week.



- Chances for showers and storms to increase again towards the

  end of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026



Early this morning, much of Kansas remains between two areas of 

activity located over Nebraska and Oklahoma. While the showers and 

storms over Nebraska will eventually track eastward away from the 

forecast area, an upper trough over the southern plains will slowly 

lumber northward today and be the primary catalyst for increasing 

chances for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. 

Lackluster shear and poor lapse rates will likely limit the intensity 

of any storm that develops; however, gusty winds from downbursts are 

still possible with the strongest storms. Even with the loss of 

diurnal heating, showers and storms will continue during the 

nighttime hours and well into Sunday morning. In terms of coverage, 

much of the activity will likely be focused across southern and 

eastern Kansas with more isolated activity anticipated across 

central Kansas. A brief break is possible midday Sunday before 

another round of diurnally driven convection develops Sunday 

afternoon, mainly across eastern Kansas. Similar to today, modest 

shear and instability will keep a lid on storm intensity, but an 

isolated downburst here and there could produce locally gusty winds.

 

Meanwhile, a trough slowly moving over the Rockies and into the 

northern High Plains will support scattered thunderstorm development 

across the High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. While there is 

a low chance that some of these storms could sneak into central 

Kansas Sunday evening and night, trends have pushed this activity 

further north into Nebraska. Therefore, aside from some lingering 

showers across far eastern Kansas, most of the rain chances should 

end late Sunday night into Monday morning. Similar to Sunday, 

another round of storms appears likely to develop across the High 

Plains Monday afternoon; however, this activity looks less likely to 

enter into central Kansas than 24 hours ago thanks in part to a 

strengthening mid/upper ridge across the southern CONUS. 



While the aforementioned ridge will help to temporarily shut off 

rain chances, it will serve to promote an early season heat wave 

across the central plains. Despite ample moisture from all of the 

recent rainfall, afternoon temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are 

currently forecast to be in the mid 90s to the low 100s. Given 

forecast dewpoints in the 60s and 70s (and perhaps in the upper 70s 

across southeast Kansas), heat indices will easily reach 105 to 110, 

especially across southern and southeast Kansas. The mid/upper ridge 

is forecast to weaken toward the end of next week as a series 

of anomalously powerful deep layer troughs begin to parade 

across the northern and central CONUS. As such, chances for 

showers and storms will be on the increase heading into the end 

of the next week and the following weekend. Stay tuned for

updates to the forecast over the coming days.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026



Low clouds in MVFR/IFR category look to develop over south

central and southeast Kansas around daybreak. The low clouds

will gradually scatter out over south central Kansas, but could

be stubborn to erode over southeast Kansas. In addition, a upper

level wave will move slowly northward from Oklahoma into Kansas

on Saturday. This looks to spark off scattered showers and 

storms beginning Saturday afternoon with activity lingering into

the late night hours.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JC

AVIATION...CDJ