595 

FXUS62 KILM 051852

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

252 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Little change this afternoon. Drought releif seems nowhere in

sight. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) The drought continues.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE 1...The drought continues.



KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... By far the biggest story continues to 

be the lack of appreciable rain chances during the next several 

days. A front will be dropping in from the north on Monday but 

guidance has been trending increasingly pessimistic regarding its 

ability to produce much rainfall.  As the post-frontal high moves 

offshore there may also be some minor rain chances on Tuesday or 

even Wednesday but with the mid level ridge making a comeback this 

looks rather dubious. Also, heat index values peak on Monday in the 

upper 90s to perhaps a few 100 degree values,  well below any 

headline thresholds.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 

Some rare one liners possible this cycle with VFR and light S to SW 

winds with high pressure passing overhead.



Extended Forecast... Extended Forecast... VFR to generally prevail 

outside of a low risk for shallow early morning fog  as early as Sun 

aftn. A low to moderate risk for restrictions from showers/storms is 

expected Mon as a weak cold front impacts the area, possibly 

lingering into Tue.



&&



.MARINE...

Tonight through Wednesday... Easterly swells will increasingly 

become less dominant in the very near term as high pressure moves 

offshore and weak Piedmont trough develops Saturday. SW winds to 

continue until being disrupted by a cold front approaching from the 

N on Monday. Tough to say what winds Monday and Tuesday may bring as 

it will hinge on the uncertain position at which the boundary 

stalls. Southerly flow should return later Tuesday though as the 

front lifts back to the north while dissipating.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB

KEY MESSAGES...MBB

DISCUSSION...MBB

AVIATION...MBB

MARINE...MBB