575 FXUS63 KIWX 050605 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 205 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - 40-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe weather possible with damaging wind and large hail as the main threats. Low confidence. - Keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on Saturday! Increasingly humid with 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. Medium confidence. - Dry and warm early next week with continued highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 Quiet, dry weather persists today. With high pressure having drifted from being overhead yesterday to now over the mid Atlantic today, high clouds are drifting in from the west and winds have turned southerly ahead of a big pattern shift in the coming days. Southerly surface flow is aiding in increased WAA, with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon. A mid level trough will ride the edge of the upper level ridge centered over the central CONUS on Friday, bringing our first of several opportunities for rain in at least 7-10 days. As this trough moves through on Friday afternoon and evening, chances for rain and storms increase to 40-60%. Some models have storms clipping the Indiana-Michigan state line as early as 15-18Z tomorrow, while others hold off in favor of a 21-00Z start time. With better moisture not arriving into our area until later in the day (dewpoints 55-60), I lean more in the favor of the later timeframe but we will also have to monitor and see what develops in Illinois Friday morning and if it clips our northern counties in the early afternoon. SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and north of US 30 on Friday, although confidence in severe weather occuring is low. Given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, 0-6km shear will only be about 20 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Moderate DCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will support isolated instances of damaging winds and hail. With PWATs around 1.5 to 2", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient rainfall producers with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. Keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on Saturday! Ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Our area will be well into the warm sector Saturday with breezy southwesterly winds; Dewpoints will increase to the upper 60s and maybe even low 70s in response to a strong southwest LLJ ramping up Friday evening and into Saturday. Increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the low to mid 80s) to support SBCAPE of up to 2500 J/kg. How much instability we get will be highly conditional on the amount of clearing that occurs Saturday morning and early afternoon. Some models keep lingering rain/storms/clouds across our area Saturday morning, which would limit how unstable the environment can become. Nevertheless, some amount of destabilization should occur Saturday afternoon afternoon after 18Z, with chances for strong to severe storms highest between 18Z-03Z. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place across northwest Ohio, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast area. Severe potential is greatest in NW Ohio because this area will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize Saturday as the cold front takes its time moving in from northwest to southeast. Confidence is medium in severe weather occuring (given morning uncertainty) but the environment will be more favorable than Friday. Steep low level lapse rates of 9C/km and 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts will support damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. It will be dry again as high pressure builds in on Sunday and Monday across the Great Lakes. Summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper 80s persist throughout all of next week with additional daily periodic chances for rain/storms by midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals this period outside of thunderstorm activity where we could see brief drops to MVFR/IFR. Upstream observations indicate SCT/BKN cloud decks around 5-6kft as of this writing, in addition to clouds around 25-30kft. High pressure continues to sink southeastward through the period, with a trough approaching from the west. Tightening pressure gradient and decent mixing this afternoon should give us SW winds gusting to around 25-30kts at times. Otherwise, as the trough moves through this afternoon into the overnight, we'll see isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Within thunderstorms, MVFR/IFR conditions are possible. It's possible we see scattered showers ahead of the main trough (15z-18z) at KSBN with WAA ongoing and strengthening moisture advection, so added VCSH for that time. More impactful showers and any T-storm activity looks to hold off until at least 18z, more likely 20z (models are quite variable). Intermittent activity occurs then through the overnight. Handled with prob30s for t-storm activity given lower confidence. Even less certainty at KFWA as models suggest the precipitation/storm activity looks to struggle with eastward progression from KSBN. Have VCSH starting around 21z, but it looks like more impactful weather and storm development is more likely after 00z (models suggest development nearly overhead around 1z). Have VCTS starting at 00z with prob 30s to handle any storms. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...MCD