013 FXUS63 KIWX 050937 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 537 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy with increasing chances (40-90 percent) for showers and storms today into tonight, highest chances west of I 69 today then spreading eastward overnight. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms between 4pm and 1am ET, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low. - Periodic chances (60-90 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday evening. There is a marginal to slight risk for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening, best potential in NW Ohio. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Confidence in severe weather occurring is medium. - Humid through early next week with high temperatures in the 80s. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period, best chances (30-60 percent) southwest on Sun/Mon, then becoming more widespread (55-70 percent) Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 536 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 No major changes from previous discussion beyond the adjustment of today's marginal risk to areas west of I 69. Saturday's risk remains the same. Confidence is still low with models varying quite a bit in regards to the available instability/moisture earlier on in the afternoon. We could see some showers/storms between 11-3pm near Lake MI and in our far western CWA--however the best chances arrive closer to 4-6 pm EDT depending on the model. Ingredients for severe in terms of the best moisture, surface instability, and shear come together closer or shortly after sunset with amplification of LLJ and sharper wave. The HRRR (which seems to be doing reasonably well as of this writing in terms of placement of current precip) brings an initial batch of showers/isolated storms between 4-8pm ET that decay rapidly as they progress eastward (stopping short of I 69). Behind that with the stronger wave around 8 pm-1 am ET another batch comes in near Lake MI and continues eastward, but intensity wanes and it becomes more scattered convection until the LLJ really focuses later overnight...which would be less severe and more of a heavy rain/lightning threat. The best mid level lapse rates come in after sunset in the west, and that is usually what we need in order to have a severe threat (7-8C/km vs 5-6C/Km earlier in day). Still as previous discussion mentioned, we do have DCAPE that develops in the afternoon so if storms manage to develop early enough and move into that environment, we could see some damaging winds and large hail. Saturday still looks like a reasonable severe weather threat, with our entire area in either a marginal or slight risk for severe weather (Slight risk remains in NW OH). Still thinking medium confidence as we have somewhat more favorable timing but there are many questions regarding the extent of morning convection/how fast we can clear that and associated cloud debris to regain some instability. Where exactly storms fire (what lingering boundaries remain, what heating differentials develop between clearing/clouds) and how widespread they get is still in question. We do have better dynamics and an incoming cold front with this set up (towards the later afternoon/evening), with sfc CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg or more and 0-6km shear of around 35-40kts depending on the model. As SPC's discussion for the outlook alludes to, this could give us more organized storm modes like bowing line segments and supercells (maybe)-which can give us the greater wind/hail threat. The tornado threat is east of our area into Ohio at this point. Of course, heavy rain and frequent lightning are also threats. One item of concern is we seem to loose our steeper mid level lapse rates as we go into the late afternoon/evening (still around 6-7C/km in NW OH at times). Despite this, still think we have a decent shot at strong/severe storms. Later this weekend into early next week is tricky as it will depend on how the upper level ridge/omega block develops and where exactly our cold front ends up on Sunday (could be far enough southwest that it's out of our area and we end up dry). A warm front lifts north through Tuesday which will bring us better potential for precipitation and storms into the evening, then a decaying surface low/cold front through Wednesday. Have a broad range of pops, with the best chances in the far west and south Sun-Mon, and then expanding CWA-wide for Tue/Wed (45-70%). It will be humid with highs in the 80s (some locations in mid-upper 80s, approaching 90). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals this period outside of thunderstorm activity where we could see brief drops to MVFR/IFR. Upstream observations indicate SCT/BKN cloud decks around 5-6kft as of this writing, in addition to clouds around 25-30kft. High pressure continues to sink southeastward through the period, with a trough approaching from the west. Tightening pressure gradient and decent mixing this afternoon should give us SW winds gusting to around 25-30kts at times. Otherwise, as the trough moves through this afternoon into the overnight, we'll see isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Within thunderstorms, MVFR/IFR conditions are possible. It's possible we see scattered showers ahead of the main trough (15z-18z) at KSBN with WAA ongoing and strengthening moisture advection, so added VCSH for that time. More impactful showers and any T-storm activity looks to hold off until at least 18z, more likely 20z (models are quite variable). Intermittent activity occurs then through the overnight. Handled with prob30s for t-storm activity given lower confidence. Even less certainty at KFWA as models suggest the precipitation/storm activity looks to struggle with eastward progression from KSBN. Have VCSH starting around 21z, but it looks like more impactful weather and storm development is more likely after 00z (models suggest development nearly overhead around 1z). Have VCTS starting at 00z with prob 30s to handle any storms. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...MCD