867 FXUS63 KIWX 060041 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 841 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and storms is expected late tonight. Isolated severe weather is possible, with greatest chances after 2 AM EDT Saturday. Confidence is low. - A few strong storms are possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, mainly along/south of US-24. - Dry and warm early next week with continued highs in the mid to upper 80s. First 90+ degree day of the year possible by late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Updated PoP/QPF/Sky grids to reflect latest trends in observational data and hi-res CAM's. First round of convection is now exiting but more storms are expected late tonight as a weak frontal boundary approaches the area (currently driving convection across WI). Increasing low level moisture, shear and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km suggest some low-end severe risk despite late-night timing. Boundary-layer stabilization will be a significant limiting factor but some hail and isolated gusty winds can't be ruled out roughly 06-12Z. Trends for tomorrow suggest a later start and shifting further south. Best storm chances appear in our southern half during the late afternoon/evening. Again an isolated severe storm is possible if decent instability builds in our CWA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A decaying MCS will bring increasing chances for rain and a few storms this afternoon and evening associated with a mid level trough. Highest chances of 60-80% will be across Lower Michigan. Despite the approaching line of showers and storms on radar this afternoon, the environment is very lackluster for any severe weather before 06z tonight outside of an isolated instance or two for damaging wind. Inverted v forecast soundings over the forecast area depict very meager instability (<500 J/kg) and mid level lapse rates (<6C/km). SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) along and north of US 24 today and tonight, although confidence in severe weather occuring is low. Given a fairly unidirectional vertical wind profile, 0-6km shear will only be about 20 kts. With weaker shear, the favored storm mode will be multicell clusters or line segments. Moderate DCAPE of around 500 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will support isolated instances of damaging winds. With PWATs around 1.5 to 2", even if storm clusters are not severe, they will likely be efficient rainfall producers with rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid 60s tonight in response to a strong LLJ ramping up this evening and into Saturday. With better moisture transport and increasing bulk shear up to 35 kts, after 06Z tonight, the environment becomes moderately favorable for severe weather. Low level lapse rates improve as well to around 7- 8C/km. Hi-res model guidance has a large spread of solutions for what could happen ranging from nothing to a sustained line of storms across northern Indiana slowly moving southward from 06-12Z. I am not fully confident on what the correct solution will be, but given the decently favorable environment despite the loss of diurnal heating, I would lean towards isolated strong to severe storms being possible overnight within the Marginal Risk. Keep an eye on the weather if you have outdoor plans on Saturday! Ahead of an approaching cold front, strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening during peak heating hours. Our area will be well into the warm sector Saturday with breezy southwesterly winds and dewpoints soaring to around 70 degrees. Increased moisture combines with daytime heating (highs in the low to mid 80s) to support SBCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg. How much instability we get will be highly conditional on what occurs tonight into early Saturday morning. Nevertheless, convective initiation should occur after midday Saturday with the best chances for scattered strong to severe storms between 18Z-03Z. Coverage and intensity of storms, including severe potential, will be driven by how much the atmosphere can recover from whatever happens overnight into Saturday morning. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place across northwest Ohio, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the forecast area. Severe potential is greatest in NW Ohio because 1) this area may not be impacted by overnight convection and 2) this area will have the longest time to heat up and destabilize Saturday as the cold front takes its time moving in from northwest to southeast. Confidence is medium in severe weather occuring (given morning uncertainty) but the environment will be more favorable than Friday. Steep low level lapse rates of 9C/km and 0-6km shear of 35-40 kts will support damaging winds and large hail as the main threats with any storms. It will be dry again as high pressure builds in on Sunday and Monday across the Great Lakes. As the upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS, summer-like temperatures in the mid to upper 80s persist throughout all of next week with the first 90+ degree day possible for many locations by the end of the week. In addition, there will be daily periodic chances for rain/storms by mid to late in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 840 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A midlevel trough lifting through the Great Lakes will send a slow-moving, weak surface front through the area late tonight into Saturday. Numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected late tonight into early Sat morning. Confidence in exact timing remains on the low side but best chances appear to be around 08-11Z. Some brief MVFR ceilings are likely with this activity, especially at KSBN. A second round of storms is possible at KFWA Sat evening but confidence is too low to mention this far out. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AGD DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...AGD