323 FXUS63 KJKL 051105 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 705 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures rise to the middle and upper 80s by the start of the weekend. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region from Sunday into new work week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 447 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 Fair skies and seasonable temperatures prevail across eastern Kentucky early this morning with thermometer readings ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Satellite imagery shows some fog in mainstem river valleys. Meanwhile, the latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the Southern Appalachians. Looking aloft, an ~589 dam high is centered over Alabama and Georgia with ridging extending northeast toward Lower Ontario and Quebec. Broad troughing with embedded shortwaves is noted over the Central and Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The troughing will propagate eastward through the short-term period, shunting the upper-level ridging southward to more over Florida and the adjacent Gulf Coast. This will bring a southeastward shift in the position of the surface high as well and make way for a cold front to drop into the Ohio Valley by the end of the forecast period, though rain chances will likely stay north of the JKL CWA through 00z Saturday. The overall air mass will continue to warm as well through the period with each subsequent day slightly warmer than the previous. In sensible terms, look for fair skies and near to above normal temperatures with a light southwesterly breeze each afternoon and a touch of fog in the typically favored river valleys late each night and early morning. Look for high temperatures in the 83 to 89F range today and about a degree or two warmer in most places on Saturday, while nighttime lows range from 56 to 65F tonight/early Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 546 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 The long term period opens with upper level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and New England, with an upper level low over the Southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be located in Quebec, with a cold front draped into the Great Lakes region. As the upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS digs farther south, the surface low will progress southeast towards the Atlantic; concurrently, the associated cold front will also push slightly south, but with building upper level ridging over the Ohio Valley, a weak surface high will prevent the front from advancing into our area. This will keep rain chances low for our area overnight. Although cloud cover will increase throughout the night, skies will remain clear enough for a mild ridge/valley temperature split. MOS guidance suggests that some of our coolest spots could plummet into the upper 50s overnight; however, the potential for clouds was enough to hold off on a more pronounced ridge/valley split at this time, and MinTs were kept in the lower 60s for now, with valley fog expected yet again for mainstem river valleys. Better rain chances will arrive in the forecast area during the day on Sunday as the closed upper level low lifts north from the Southern Plains. Given the associated broad area of positive vorticity advection aloft over the Ohio Valley, forcing will be more ideal for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, particularly in the northern portion of our area. These rain chances will be bolstered by additional moisture advection via southwesterly winds; LREF mean PWATs will be above the 90th percentile compared to climatology, with a moist air mass expected to be in place through the end of the forecast period. Shower/storm coverage is expected to diminish overnight Sunday with the loss of daytime heating. Rain chances return during the day Monday as the upper level low lifts north and becomes less defined, taking on the form of a negatively tilted shortwave within broader troughing in the western and central CONUS. The eastward push of this wave will once again provide additional forcing for diurnally driven showers and storms. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic will induce a shift towards more southerly winds, but with rich moisture already in place, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s or perhaps even low 70s. Following Monday's rain chances, model guidance diverges with respect to the upper level pattern; however, additional rounds of intermittent showers and storms appear likely as broad troughing to our west will allow additional impulses to rotate into our forecast area. Also, slightly above average temperatures appear likely through the middle of next week as eastern Kentucky sits on the western side of the upper level ridging extending over the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 Fog will bring IFR conditions to the deeper valleys in south central and southeast KY early this morning, but shouldn't affect TAF sites. Light and variable winds through daybreak will become southwesterly at 10 kts or less during daylight hours. This afternoon, a diurnal cu field is expected to develop. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the period at TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...FAGAN AVIATION...FAGAN/GEERTSON