918 FXUS63 KJKL 051851 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 251 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures rise to the middle and upper 80s by the start of the weekend. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region from Sunday into new work week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 242 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 High pressure gets shunted south over the next 24 hours, with westerly flow and a passing shortwave impinging south within this flow across the Ohio Valley later tonight into Saturday. Weak flow then develops Saturday night as narrow upper ridging builds well off to the north, with some connection to the lingering ridge over the Southeast US. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will move south to the northern Ohio River Valley, becoming situated in a west-east fashion well north of the area by dawn Sunday. A drier air mass lingers through tonight keeping the atmosphere stable, but moisture and weak instability will begin to move up the Ohio River Valley and into western and northern parts of the forecast area by Saturday afternoon, then move into much of the rest of the forecast area Saturday night as a mid-level disturbance moves northeast into central Kentucky. Low-end PoPs are introduced for the last hour of the short-term period just before 12z Sunday as sufficient moisture, instability, and forcing for ascent become present. Temperatures will continue an upwards trend as the area will reside within the warm sector through the period, with the more notable upwards trend with overnight lows for tonight and Saturday night with increasing warm/moisture advection. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 546 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 The long term period opens with upper level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and New England, with an upper level low over the Southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be located in Quebec, with a cold front draped into the Great Lakes region. As the upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS digs farther south, the surface low will progress southeast towards the Atlantic; concurrently, the associated cold front will also push slightly south, but with building upper level ridging over the Ohio Valley, a weak surface high will prevent the front from advancing into our area. This will keep rain chances low for our area overnight. Although cloud cover will increase throughout the night, skies will remain clear enough for a mild ridge/valley temperature split. MOS guidance suggests that some of our coolest spots could plummet into the upper 50s overnight; however, the potential for clouds was enough to hold off on a more pronounced ridge/valley split at this time, and MinTs were kept in the lower 60s for now, with valley fog expected yet again for mainstem river valleys. Better rain chances will arrive in the forecast area during the day on Sunday as the closed upper level low lifts north from the Southern Plains. Given the associated broad area of positive vorticity advection aloft over the Ohio Valley, forcing will be more ideal for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, particularly in the northern portion of our area. These rain chances will be bolstered by additional moisture advection via southwesterly winds; LREF mean PWATs will be above the 90th percentile compared to climatology, with a moist air mass expected to be in place through the end of the forecast period. Shower/storm coverage is expected to diminish overnight Sunday with the loss of daytime heating. Rain chances return during the day Monday as the upper level low lifts north and becomes less defined, taking on the form of a negatively tilted shortwave within broader troughing in the western and central CONUS. The eastward push of this wave will once again provide additional forcing for diurnally driven showers and storms. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic will induce a shift towards more southerly winds, but with rich moisture already in place, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s or perhaps even low 70s. Following Monday's rain chances, model guidance diverges with respect to the upper level pattern; however, additional rounds of intermittent showers and storms appear likely as broad troughing to our west will allow additional impulses to rotate into our forecast area. Also, slightly above average temperatures appear likely through the middle of next week as eastern Kentucky sits on the western side of the upper level ridging extending over the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 VFR conditions prevailed over the terminals at TAF issuance. Any localized fog in the deeper valleys at forecast issuance will burn off by 12 to 13z but should not have any impacts on the TAF sites. Otherwise, high clouds will persist through the period and will be accompanied by a diurnally-driven shallow cumulus field from through this afternoon. Light and variable winds will become southwesterly at less than 10 kts by ~15Z and continue through the early evening. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...FAGAN AVIATION...CMC