447 FXUS63 KJKL 060738 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 338 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions remain in place through tonight, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region from Sunday on into new work week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026 Another fair and seasonably mild early morning is underway across eastern Kentucky with just some passing high clouds and temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the cooler valleys to the mid/upper 60s on the thermal belt ridges and exposed open terrain. The latest surface weather map shows an !1020 mb surface high now situated off of the Carolinas, displaced east of a 500 hPa ridge axis along the Atlantic Seaboard. Upstream, a shallow trough is propagating from the Upper Mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northern Ohio Valley. A weak area of low pressure is passing through the Ottawa Valley vicinity out ahead of the trough while a cold front is draped from the surface reflection southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes and into Wisconsin, Iowa and the Central Plains. Also of note is a weak upper level low spinning over Western Texas and eastern New Mexico. The aforementioned upper level trough will brush north of the Commonwealth today while the ridging is briefly shunted southward. The trough's associated cold front will sag southward into the northern Ohio Valley but will then stall, abandoned as the trough departs into the Northeast CONUS. Convection associated with this boundary is favored to stay fully north and east of the forecast area through tonight as heights rebound over the Commonwealth behind the departing upper level trough. Those heights will continue to rebound on Sunday as a transient pseudo-omega-shaped 500hPa ridge pumps up from the Ohio Valley northward into Ontario while the upper low over the southern Plains opens and ejects northeast to the vicinity of Kansas City, MO by 00z Monday. PWATs will rise throughout the short-term period, first with moisture pooling out ahead of the cold front stagnating to our north today/tonight, then on Sunday with continued moisture advection within deep southwesterly flow along the western flank of the upper level ridging. A weak perturbation within the southwesterly flow may spark isolated to scattered convection on Sunday (mainly afternoon and evening), generally near and north of the Mountain Parkway. In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and very warm Saturday across eastern Kentucky with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s with a modest southwesterly breeze. Partly cloudy skies follow tonight with lows in the lower to middle 60s. It will be partly sunny and warm yet again on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s for most, though it will be more humid. There could also be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, mainly near and north of the Mountain Parkway. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026 After a dry and tranquil period, the extended brings back chances of precipitation and keeps these chances in place every day from Sunday through next Friday. The strong ridge that's been in place across eastern KY and much of the far Southeast conus will begin to degrade Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong shortwave moves through, allowing for lowering heights and for frontal boundaries to finally be able to progress southeast towards the CWA. The first of these will reach the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning, connected to a strong low pressure system moving across New England, and another low moving into the Northern Plains. It will quickly drop south into eastern KY during the day Sunday, but will then stall overnight, before the west side of the state sees the front continue to lift back north as a warm front during the day Monday. This is likely due to increasing heights across the eastern half of the Ohio Valley, while a strong upper level low takes shape across the Central Plains. As the upper level low continues to lift northeast traveling along the outside edge of the ridge, the associated surface system will also move northward, pivoting the western edge of the front northward as a warm front (in western KY), but keeping it stationary across eastern KY. The front will remain positioned across eastern KY through Tuesday as the above-mentioned upper level low weakens into a shortwave and moves east across the state. The surface front will finally lift completely north of the state and dissipate on Wednesday as the upper level ridge begins to re-establish itself. While high pressure should be in place for Thursday and even into Friday, eastern KY will find itself on the return flow side of the surface high, with continued SW flow which will allow moisture and precipitation chances both days, especially during daytime peak heating/mixing. As for sensible weather, with the frontal boundary lingering around eastern KY for a few days, daytime high temperatures will stay fairly steady-state, but warm and humid, in the mid and upper 80s, from Sunday through Tuesday. Then as the front finally lifts north on Wednesday and warmer return flow remains in place through the end of the period, allowing temperatures to continue to modify warmer, into the upper 80s and low 90s for both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will also be very mild, in the upper 60s and low 70s through the period. Overall not expecting any large airmass changes, so also not expecting any swings in temperature. As mentioned at the beginning, shower and thunderstorm chances are on tap each day, especially during the afternoon with peak heating and mixing. Best daily chances for precip will be from Monday through Wednesday as the shortwave passes from east to west across the region allowing for extra lift/energy, combining with the pivoting warm front across the CWA Monday through Tuesday, and then increased southerly flow on Wednesday as high pressure takes hold to our east. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High clouds continue to pass over the area early this morning. Patchy fog is also possible through daybreak but should mainly be confined to the valleys and is not expected to effect any TAF locations. Additionally, shallow diurnal cumulus field is expected from late morning through the afternoon hours. Winds are light and variable but will become southwest around 10 kts or less after 14-15Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK