111 FXUS62 KKEY 060230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal rain chances are expected through the weekend. - Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the next few days. - Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Where to even begin here. It was a day that many people we are sure won't forget here in Key West and even Stock Island. Key West to Stock Island and even Boca Chica Key had quite the early to mid afternoon with thunderstorms training over the area. As of 5 PM EDT, the Key West International Airport recorded 4.34 inches of rainfall. This makes today June 5th, the 4th wettest June day on record since records starting being kept in 1871. Also, this set a new record for the date breaking the previous record of 2.11 inches set back in 1936. MRMS data shows estimated 24 hour rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches across the Lower Keys, mainly for Key West and Stock Island. Most of this rain fell in the short 1-2 hour window between 12-2 pm EDT. KBYX radar is much quieter now with a couple showers remaining across the Straits and the SE Gulf. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows the clouds across the Keys slowly dissipating. This is much relief to onslaught and deluge of an afternoon experienced. Temperatures along the Island Chain remain quite cool compared to previous days in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points are in the lower 70s. Surface high pressure remains anchored off the Georgia coastline this evening. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording mainly east breezes near 15 knots with occasional gusts to near 20 knots. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding displays a moist atmospheric profile, though, there is noticeable dry air in the lowest several thousand feet. The PWAT value measured was 2.09 inches which is above the 90th percentile for the date. Also, the CAPE value measured was virtually 0 J/kg meaning that activity earlier today basically used up all the juice and instability in the atmosphere. That being said, the air mass has most likely been stabilized across the Keys, at least for now. There remains rain chances overnight, though, based on the latest profile of the atmosphere, showers overnight may be far and few between. At the very best, showers and thunderstorms may have a tough time redeveloping at least until some daytime heating is able to take place again. We expect the next several hours to remain shower free, though, some indications are for some isolated showers to develop after 06/06z. Due to this, no changes to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 There are currently, no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an expansive eastern United States surface high will move off the Carolina Coast will push into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a result, mostly moderate easterly breezes will gradually give way to gentle to moderate easterlies this weekend. The recent bout of increased shower and thunderstorm activity is nearing its end, and convective potential will fall closer to normal through this period. Early next week the high will have pushed out into the Atlantic and weak troughing is expected to set up over Cuba and the Bahamas. This will tip breezes a bit further southeasterly with, initially, some additional slackening. By midweek, unsettled weather and increased rain and thunder chances will return to the Keys. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. After the deluge today, especially for EYW, a drier pattern is expected for the next few days. However, chances for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms do remain, especially after 06/06z continuing through Saturday. Since there is decent agreement for shower activity after 06/06z, VCSH was included in the TAF. It should be noted that any shower activity over the next 24 hours won't be like today. Other than that, near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 79 87 80 / 70 50 30 30 Marathon 85 79 86 79 / 70 30 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest